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Global stocks markets continue to swell in value with Japanese shares rallying higher overnight and the German Dax index still showing strength just above the psychologically important 13,000 level.
Day trade
Trade view / 13 September 2016 at 7:51 GMT

USDCHF looks to break to the upside

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom
Instrument: USDCHF
Price target:
Market price:
Background

USD Index – There's nothing to indicate that the dollar bull run is coming to an end. In fact, the whole move down from Friday's high trade could be analysed at a bullish flag formation that is just about the break to the upside. We still look to focus on 96.15, the neckline of the reverse Head and Shoulders pattern.

usd index
 Source: Saxo Bank

We had a signal to buy USDCHF this morning in early trade and, using money management we now (effectively) have a free long trade in one unit. 

There is no change to Friday's technical report. 

Management and risk description

Took profit on 1 unit at 0.9734 (9 pips) meaning we run the balance with a stop at 0.9715. Worse case scenario is a -1 pip loss on the trade. 

Parameters

Entry: Bought 2 units at 0.9725 

Stop: 0.9715

Target: 0.9900

Time horizon: this week 

— Edited by Clare MacCarthy

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
1y
AlexF AlexF
Hi Ian what would be good level to enter. So far USD should feel stronger that what we see vs JPY & CHF. Trend overall is not clear right ?
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
No. We are seeing a prolonged period of consolidation in all USD pairs. My tactics at the moment are very much based on money management as well as technically. Just trying to trade my triggers then (hopefully) get free trades. I think the ZEW survey will set the tone for the remainder of the day. Wanted to get in before that. Buying a break of this mornings high (out of the formation) is probably the best idea now.
1y
bvlaerhoven bvlaerhoven
i'm still undecided as of yet....waiting for triangle to show me
1y
Michael S. McKenna Michael S. McKenna
This comment has been redacted
1y
Michael S. McKenna Michael S. McKenna
Mild disappointment in ZEW release, what's your take on today's USD/USDCHF/EURUSD session in light of the reports?
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Hi Michael. I am still a USD bull. EURUSD needs to break 1.1210 (triangle base), USDCHF at 0.9745 (channel top) I think JPY pairs could break higher also... Taken a small long in EURJPY
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Just USDJPY long and USDCHF long now (cashed in half trades and EURJPY)
1y
AlexF AlexF
Hi Ian to enter usdjpy would wait break of 102,2 ?
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Hi AlexF .. I was very lucky. I had a signal to buy at 102.00. I have some resistance at 102.25 but I don't think it will hold. A daily close above 102.66 opens the way for an aggressive move higher
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
NIKKEI REPORTING THAT JAPAN'S MOF HAS APPROVED AN INCREASE IN 40-YEAR JGB SALE..... I think that headline could give us some upside momentum with little in the way of other financial releases today.
1y
Dj TinTin Dj TinTin
GBPUSD ??? Ian
1y
AlexF AlexF
The problem on USDCHF i have is that CHF is risk off and everytime the equity future go south CHF gets stronger. Even though USD should go up so tough one
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
GBPUSD we had s sell signal this morning. In no mans land at these levels. Long term bear
1y
Dj TinTin Dj TinTin
getting hammered on the GBPUSD
1y
Michael Liu Michael Liu
Hi Ian, Do you still have this position?
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I am only long USDJPY st the moment
1y
AlexF AlexF
Ian what is your Stop loss on USDJPY I am in but very volatile.....look at yesterday night down to 101.42...
1y
AlexF AlexF
Ok thanks. Another idea is USDRUB also from Saxo strat do you follow this pair, Q4 looks to have USDRUB up based on seasonality and if WTI stays weak and USD stays strong could be a good pair to follow. Any thought ?
1y
AlexF AlexF
10 Y bonds taking us higher
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
watching 102.86 .... could be a three drives pattern .....
1y
AlexF AlexF
as PT and go in again lower ?
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
really tempted but I will get a buy signal on the daily chart if we close above 102.60 (which looks likely) but would then prefer to buy on dips... will watch it closely...
1y
AlexF AlexF
DOLLAR: Goldman Sachs remains bullish towards the USD and says the MT outlook
remains "very supportive." In the near-term, September vs December Fed hike
discussion "ignores that markets price only 15 bps for the two meetings
combined." They remind that Vice Chair Fischer discussed the possibility of two
hikes in 2016, which suggests that "one hike is very much on the table." On the
various pairs, USDCAD (favored FX play) should firm into the October MPR meeting
(Oct 19) and "could approach our 12-month forecast of 1.40 by year-end." GS also
likes at USDJPY long, "given that long Yen positioning is extreme and markets
are overdue for a re-think on the BoJ being out of bullets." GS targets target
Y110 by year-end. "Finally, it is time to re-initiate short RMB positions, given
that Dollar strength remains a stumbling block for China's currency," GS
strategists say.
1y
AlexF AlexF
Im afarid to keep usdjpy overnight got caught yesterday with a stop at 101.44 and got filled at 101.42 if u do keep your position youll have 101.8 SL ?
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I am at entry now (101.98)
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
bit annoyed i stepped out for the USDCHF trigger
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
missed a few 'sitters' today but happy with the end result
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I am out ..,..... speak in the morning.
1y
AlexF AlexF
Ok good evening
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
In EURUSD ... cant leave it alone !!!!
1y
AlexF AlexF
at 1.1205 I guess
1y
AlexF AlexF
Hi Ian kept the trade overnight, please share you entry PT if you do to give us a reference thanks
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
well done. I have resistance at 103.33 and 103.74..... not sure if they will hold... looks vvvv bullish

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