Article / 06 July 2016 at 14:30 GMT

USDCAD patterns indicating possible bull run

Technical Analyst / Saxo Bank
  • USDCAD forming symmetrical triangle pointing to bullish breakout
  • USDCAD faces resistance at 1.33, but double-bottom pattern points to 1.35-36
  • A break below 1.27 will demolish bullish picture


USDCAD might be ready for a bull run if it can find its legs. Photo: iStock

By Kim Cramer-Larsson

USDCAD is forming a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart, both on the price and the RSI.

A likely bullish breakout will send the loonie to at least the resistance at 1.33. The 200-daily moving average and the 0.382 retracement level of the January to April bear market  provides some resistance. 

However, according to the theory of symmetrical triangles, the potential target is the difference between the highest peak ie. 1.3185 and the lowest valley ie. 1.2460 added to the break-out price added to the break-out level. But since USDCAD has not yet broken out, we do not know the break-out level.

However, usually the breakout of a symmetrical triangle occurs 75% of the way to the apex (where the two trendlines meet) so there could still be a few more days for this to occur.
But if USDCAD indeed breaks out bullish, it will do it at a level around 1.31 which gives us a potential long target of roughly 1.38. That is at around where the 0.618 retracement level of the January to April bear market lies. However, the 1.33 and 1.3570 resistances could prove too strong to break.

We could get some guidance from the double-bottom pattern inside the triangle which would indicate a target also at around 1.35-1.36.

As often with patterns unfolding on the price graph itself ,we also see identical patterns on the RSI and sometimes we actually see the breakout on the RSI shortly, prior to the price breakout so keep an eye on the trend lines on the RSI.

Bollinger Bands are a bit indecisive at the moment but a bullish move on USDCAD will most like make them expand ie. an indication of the initial trend.
A break below 1.27 will most likely demolish the bullish picture. 

USDCAD daily
Source: Saxo Bank

— Edited by Martin O'Rourke

Kim Cramer-Larsson is a technical analyst at Saxo Bank



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