Kay Van-Petersen
Kay Van-Petersen, macro strategist at Saxo Capital Markets, digests the market action seen in week 43 and gives his tactical positing. Van-Petersen favours a USD step back, sees gold consolidating, and believes that European equities are overheated.
Short term
Trade view / 13 June 2016 at 8:00 GMT

USDCAD capped by key average, lower levels targeted

Partner at 3 C ANALYSIS / 3cAnalysis
United Kingdom

Selling pressure grew over the last five days. Two modest weekly declines were followed by a more aggressive one and although the move was dominated by the first three days of the week, the rally attempts over the last two days were weak. 

So with USDCAD almost correcting 62% of the rise from May’s low and prices tracking the lower end of a negative daily Keltner channel, the downside remains the likely focus for traders.

Management and risk description

A move to 1.2695 means the stop can be lowered to breakeven or better.


Entry: sell in 1.2790/00 area and any rally to 1.2877

Stop: 1.2984 bid

Target: 1.2695, 1.2632 or even 1.2540.

Time horizon: this week.

Three down weeks:
3 Down Weeks

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Source: CQG

Bounce from channel:
Bounce from Channel
Source: CQG

Long Term
Source: CQG

— Edited by Michael McKenna

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Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
13 June
Invinci Invinci
Hi alan - how is this view overlayed with current downward oil sentiment/movement?
13 June
AlanCollins AlanCollins
Hi Invinci. I feel Crude Oil has positive sentiment. Despite last week's minor decline the trend higher from February lows is intact - hugging top of weekly Keltner channel, testing top of weekly Ichimoku Cloud and with bullish RSI and Momentum. So, currently, I'd expect profit taking setbacks to prove temporary and limited.
13 June
John Roberti John Roberti
I am a bit surprised by your analysis of USDCAD. technically, it might be oK but fundamentally, we have coming the decline in quarterly GDP estimated by economists at -1/4% for quarter 2, plus next month a drop of employment of over 20.000 people due to albert fires (not yet fully over)! Then the glut is increasing due to oil production resumptions in Canada and increases in Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Thus, for this month, I do not see the usdcad declining and the oil resuming a serious upside! A 3 dollar drop in three days is not insignificant not to forget the serious increase in Short contract on WTI!


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