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James Kim@Saxo
James Kim, sales trader at Saxo Capital Markets, Australia, examines trading strategies during week 7 in a technical analysis of charts for forex, indices, and commodities.
Day trade
/
Sell
Trade view / Friday at 8:59 GMT

USD to move higher in CD leg — playing the commodity pairs

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom
Instrument: AUDUSD
Price target: 0.7615
Market price: 0.7690
Background

USD index

We got the move down in the index yesterday in what we believe to be the BC leg of a larger AB=CD corrective formation. The prime support is at 100.25 and we have stopped short at a 100.40 low. There no clear signal that the upward move is underway (in some majors) and I would still buy USD dips to this level. 

USD Index (intraday) - Looking for a move higher in CD
USD Index
Source: Saxo Bank

I prefer to look at commodity pairs when buying USD and I am starting to build positions in USDCAD and AUDUSD. AUDUSD charts explained below: 


AUDUSD

Monthly – after posting a bullish outside month in January, we have had to review our medium-term forecast. We have seen mixed trading for the last sixteen months as we hold onto the base of the expanding-wedge formation. We could say that we have completed a 5-wave pattern, but the fact that waves three and one overlap makes this forecast unclear. Last month’s Marabuzo is seen at 0.7395. 

AUDUSD m
Source: Saxo Bank 

Weekly – just holding on to the trend of lower highs. Are we forming a bullish reverse head and shoulders? We'd need a clear break of this week’s high (and close) to call that. Dips are likely to find buyers. 

AUDUSD w
Source: Saxo Bank 

Daily – moved higher in a very impulsive 5 rally. We have now completed the 5-wave pattern and stalled close to the trend of lower highs (at 0.7747). The four-hour chart has posted a DeMark 13 exhaustion. 

AUDUSD D
 Source: Saxo Bank

Intraday (two-hours) – posting an ending-wedge formation. A break of 0.7680 and the measured move target is 0.7618. With the previous swing low and 261.8% extension in the vicinity, this is our target area (today). I would then look to sell rallies back up towards the 0.7680 area as this choppy USD correction plays out. 

AUDUSD 2
Source: Saxo Bank 

USDCAD charts, target and stop posted on the squawk. 

Management and risk description

Only looking to short down to 0.7615-05 then sell into rallies close to 0.7680 as this corrective formation plays out. 

Parameters

Entry: short at 0.7696

Stop: 0.7735

Target: 0.7615-0.7605 area

Time horizon: today 

— Edited by Jack Davies

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
A compiled overview of Trade Views provided on TradingFloor.com is found here
2d
usxau usxau
G;day Ian. Nice set ups on audusd and usdcad, are you expecting risk aversion to set these pairs on fire or renewed DXY strength? Still in my short eurusd from y'day! UK data out at the bottom of the hour, will be interesting one! ;)
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Hi Sabrine. I am looking purely at the USD ... think spikes higher in EURGBP will be sold into .... and GBPUSD I think it capped by the trend .... good luck with the EURUSD
2d
Rofhiwa Thomoli Rofhiwa Thomoli
I'm in. Thanks Ian
2d
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
well thank you very much for the report
2d
touqeer touqeer
joined trade .. thanks bro
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
just holding the wedge
2d
AG11406 AG11406
Hi Ian! Levels to watch for GBPUSD?
2d
usxau usxau
cable is looking weak! :(
2d
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
is now bye bye GBP
2d
trendy trendy
Why is sinking?
2d
usxau usxau
A lot is already priced into gbp... and the eurgbp is driving that pair as much as usd does cable!
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
and more sellers than buyers !! LOL ;-)
2d
trendy trendy
Retail sales...
2d
trendy trendy
It would be interesting to know the volumes, to point exactly which one is weakening the GBP more, USD or EUR...
2d
trendy trendy
Saxo didn't put the retail sales on news events, there are no news for Saxo...
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
you can get 'tic' data in FX (how many trades) but not really size .. what charting package do you use ?
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I ways use multiple feeds for a calendar.... just in case
2d
trendy trendy
Nothing special, just Saxo's default... Good for you; there are forexfactory and investing...
2d
trendy trendy
Three days of nasty data for cable...
2d
goldfinger goldfinger
I have to say that I really enjoy your pieces. Keep them coming and have a good weekend
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Thanks Goldfinger ... that is much appreciated :-)
2d
trendy trendy
What charting package for you?
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I use Saxo Trader mainly .... MT4 for my system .... SaxoGO for my trades ......
2d
trendy trendy
Missed the entry for aud; too late for entering?
2d
trendy trendy
MT4 way complex than go...
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
yes I think so....... r/r is now poor
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
every tool has different benefits
2d
AlexF AlexF
Hi Ian please need your feed-back I took a nice trade on long AUDNZD 10 days ago on a UBS reco at 1.0466 with a TP of 1.075. AUD is selling off vs USD. What is ur reco on my AUD NZD position so far did not cross the 1.07. Keep/Sell ? tx
2d
trendy trendy
What the benefits for go, didn't figured yet...
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
will take a look Alex .. not one I normally cover
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
first thought are this is just a daily correction from the DeMark 9..... will take a closer look
2d
usxau usxau
Careful now, we have indexes in the red and yield are all pointing higher and yields are moving markets, keep an eye on them - we might get a surprise move in the dxy
2d
AlexF AlexF
Thanks Ian. From macro both central banks had their meeting last week and NZ issued a dovish outlook with no hirs in next 18 months
2d
AlexF AlexF
USXAU which direction ? took short EURUSD this mornining @ 1.0672
2d
AlexF AlexF
Feels like we could see a sell off in equities today, my saxo select took sort US2000 and EU50, Iam short UStech as well
2d
goldfinger goldfinger
Yup, I am short S&P. Blair on TV opposing Brexit. Dangerous man. Why hasn't somebody shot him?.
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
AUDNZD -- just looks like a 4th wave correction 1.0850 looks prime
2d
usxau usxau
Alex if I'd know that ...I'd have many friends! LOL Personally I think the US still looks good
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
AUDUSD little bounce off 161.8%... with this also being our bespoke support, time to lower (set) stop
2d
trendy trendy
Sabrina, are you thinking about a dxy falling?
2d
usxau usxau
Trendy, no I think DXY will be supported, we had super data points out of US, FED hawkish and talking about rate hikes, whereas the rest of the world has 'huge' problems :)
2d
trendy trendy
Not quite bounce, stays flat last minutes
2d
trendy trendy
Cad is superman today, very stiff...
2d
trendy trendy
Alex, what is saxo select, please?
2d
usxau usxau
Ian nice call on AUDUSD - Kudos :)
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
thank you .... :-)
2d
trendy trendy
Ian, I am already thinking what I will trade when you'll be in vacation...
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
lol.. I am off for a week March 20-24th ... skiing with a very dangerous bunch of lads .. then you've got me until August !
2d
usxau usxau
Well I'll be skiing next week - can't wait ;) Although not dangerously as I am 'en familie' :)
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
have a great holiday ......
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
you know... I 'think' we might get another dip in the USD ... 100.25 is prime support and we were short ... not sure but could see this...
2d
usxau usxau
Gents, (not sure if there are any other ladies here! ) a lot is already baked into the gbp, however the frenchies no starting to talk grand qualitions (socialist and far-left) has not yet been priced into the euro imo!
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
EURUSD and USDCHF did not hit our prime levels (1.0695 and 0.9955).... .... got to be wiling to add-in
2d
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
just looking at EURUSD at the mo
2d
AlexF AlexF
Thanks Ian yes 1.085 is long term TP for UBS, just read some comments and AUD topping but probably vs USD
2d
trendy trendy
Alex, what is saxo select?
2d
AlexF AlexF
Hi Trendy saxoselect is a Saxo srategy you can invest in they have several, I personnally invest in 4 global stock picker, morningstar, discretionary trading and macro forex. On macro forex and discretionary tu put it simply you are following the trades a a pro trader selected by Saxo...check their web site or call your saxo account manager
2d
AlexF AlexF
Global stock picker is basically the wealth management team of saxo and they are doing very well this year, morning star is excellent value strategy
2d
AlexF AlexF
Eg my macro forex took just now a short AUDUSD position thats also why I asked Ian about AUDNZD outlook.
2d
AlexF AlexF
BTW anyone looking at the new autochrtist feature from saxo ? opinion ? I prefer to go directly to autochartist.com to be honest...
2d
trendy trendy
What entry audusd?
2d
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
ok but if you look i have never seen a 75% chance trade in the highlighted box not many for 65% as well
2d
trendy trendy
Good idea to short footsie?
2d
Smakodak Smakodak
Hi Ian, Thanks !! yesterday you mentioned USDJPY and no resist. before 112.10, whats your near term take on USDJPY, I'm looking to go long :-)
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
morning .... near term is 113.61
2d
trendy trendy
footsie on green; brexit canceled?
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I am looking at buying at 112.10 ... nothing at current levels
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I only look at FX Trendy
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
in fact .. I am out of everything at the mo
2d
trendy trendy
Sorry, don't want to bother, but today is possible to crack indexes
2d
touqeer touqeer
I am learning a lot from this fourm...
2d
MSN28 MSN28
Ian, do you think audusd lost its momentum? time to exit?
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
just not 100% on the USD at the moment
2d
trendy trendy
Late to enter short on cad?
2d
usxau usxau
With no data this afternoon, we might see the most action once Trump takes to Twitter! :)
2d
trendy trendy
Posted some "smart" line? This is the reason indexes are moving up?
2d
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
hes just getting ready
2d
usxau usxau
That's funny Andrew! :)
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
lol.. he looks a little concerned !!!!
2d
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
FAKE NEWS
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I think without a 'tweet' we might well be done for this week
2d
usxau usxau
We need a new tweeting trump indicator! ;) Well he might 'air' some stupid comment at that demonstration planned for later today!
2d
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
looks that way Ian
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
LOL.... like it !
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Right ... I think I am done... The market has been extremely kind this week (letting me out of my mistakes). Lets hope we can keep the winning run going... I will only be posting 'calls' where I get the set up and am in the trarde......... but will outline views and what we are looking at .... have a great weekend all...... its been a real pleasure
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
if EURUSD or USCHF get to 1.0700 or 0.9945 I will take another look .... LOL.. never say never (alarms set)
2d
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
you closing AUDUSD ?
2d
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
yep ... out of everything
2d
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
closed just before the bell have a good weekend mate speak Monday if not before
2d
trendy trendy
CAD finally delivered...
2d
seas seas
G10 worries, Trump put a wrench it.
2d
seas seas
Makes alot of sence though- especially if demand for iron ore abates.
2d
seas seas
long usdchf, usdyen now

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