Day trade
/
Sell
Trade view / 17 February 2017 at 8:59 GMT

USD to move higher in CD leg — playing the commodity pairs

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom
Instrument: AUDUSD
Price target: 0.7615
Market price: 0.7690
Background

USD index

We got the move down in the index yesterday in what we believe to be the BC leg of a larger AB=CD corrective formation. The prime support is at 100.25 and we have stopped short at a 100.40 low. There no clear signal that the upward move is underway (in some majors) and I would still buy USD dips to this level. 

USD Index (intraday) - Looking for a move higher in CD
USD Index
Source: Saxo Bank

I prefer to look at commodity pairs when buying USD and I am starting to build positions in USDCAD and AUDUSD. AUDUSD charts explained below: 


AUDUSD

Monthly – after posting a bullish outside month in January, we have had to review our medium-term forecast. We have seen mixed trading for the last sixteen months as we hold onto the base of the expanding-wedge formation. We could say that we have completed a 5-wave pattern, but the fact that waves three and one overlap makes this forecast unclear. Last month’s Marabuzo is seen at 0.7395. 

AUDUSD m
Source: Saxo Bank 

Weekly – just holding on to the trend of lower highs. Are we forming a bullish reverse head and shoulders? We'd need a clear break of this week’s high (and close) to call that. Dips are likely to find buyers. 

AUDUSD w
Source: Saxo Bank 

Daily – moved higher in a very impulsive 5 rally. We have now completed the 5-wave pattern and stalled close to the trend of lower highs (at 0.7747). The four-hour chart has posted a DeMark 13 exhaustion. 

AUDUSD D
 Source: Saxo Bank

Intraday (two-hours) – posting an ending-wedge formation. A break of 0.7680 and the measured move target is 0.7618. With the previous swing low and 261.8% extension in the vicinity, this is our target area (today). I would then look to sell rallies back up towards the 0.7680 area as this choppy USD correction plays out. 

AUDUSD 2
Source: Saxo Bank 

USDCAD charts, target and stop posted on the squawk. 

Management and risk description

Only looking to short down to 0.7615-05 then sell into rallies close to 0.7680 as this corrective formation plays out. 

Parameters

Entry: short at 0.7696

Stop: 0.7735

Target: 0.7615-0.7605 area

Time horizon: today 

— Edited by Jack Davies

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
A compiled overview of Trade Views provided on TradingFloor.com is found here
17 February
usxau usxau
G;day Ian. Nice set ups on audusd and usdcad, are you expecting risk aversion to set these pairs on fire or renewed DXY strength? Still in my short eurusd from y'day! UK data out at the bottom of the hour, will be interesting one! ;)
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Hi Sabrine. I am looking purely at the USD ... think spikes higher in EURGBP will be sold into .... and GBPUSD I think it capped by the trend .... good luck with the EURUSD
17 February
Rofhiwa Thomoli Rofhiwa Thomoli
I'm in. Thanks Ian
17 February
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
well thank you very much for the report
17 February
touqeer touqeer
joined trade .. thanks bro
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
good luck all
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
just holding the wedge
17 February
AG11406 AG11406
Hi Ian! Levels to watch for GBPUSD?
17 February
usxau usxau
cable is looking weak! :(
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
all of those
17 February
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
is now bye bye GBP
17 February
trendy trendy
Why is sinking?
17 February
usxau usxau
A lot is already priced into gbp... and the eurgbp is driving that pair as much as usd does cable!
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
figures !!
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
and more sellers than buyers !! LOL ;-)
17 February
trendy trendy
Retail sales...
17 February
trendy trendy
It would be interesting to know the volumes, to point exactly which one is weakening the GBP more, USD or EUR...
17 February
trendy trendy
Saxo didn't put the retail sales on news events, there are no news for Saxo...
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
you can get 'tic' data in FX (how many trades) but not really size .. what charting package do you use ?
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I ways use multiple feeds for a calendar.... just in case
17 February
trendy trendy
Nothing special, just Saxo's default... Good for you; there are forexfactory and investing...
17 February
trendy trendy
Three days of nasty data for cable...
17 February
goldfinger goldfinger
I have to say that I really enjoy your pieces. Keep them coming and have a good weekend
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Thanks Goldfinger ... that is much appreciated :-)
17 February
trendy trendy
What charting package for you?
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I use Saxo Trader mainly .... MT4 for my system .... SaxoGO for my trades ......
17 February
trendy trendy
Missed the entry for aud; too late for entering?
17 February
trendy trendy
MT4 way complex than go...
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
yes I think so....... r/r is now poor
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
every tool has different benefits
17 February
AlexF AlexF
Hi Ian please need your feed-back I took a nice trade on long AUDNZD 10 days ago on a UBS reco at 1.0466 with a TP of 1.075. AUD is selling off vs USD. What is ur reco on my AUD NZD position so far did not cross the 1.07. Keep/Sell ? tx
17 February
trendy trendy
What the benefits for go, didn't figured yet...
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
good execution
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
will take a look Alex .. not one I normally cover
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
first thought are this is just a daily correction from the DeMark 9..... will take a closer look
17 February
usxau usxau
Careful now, we have indexes in the red and yield are all pointing higher and yields are moving markets, keep an eye on them - we might get a surprise move in the dxy
17 February
AlexF AlexF
Thanks Ian. From macro both central banks had their meeting last week and NZ issued a dovish outlook with no hirs in next 18 months
17 February
AlexF AlexF
USXAU which direction ? took short EURUSD this mornining @ 1.0672
17 February
AlexF AlexF
Feels like we could see a sell off in equities today, my saxo select took sort US2000 and EU50, Iam short UStech as well
17 February
goldfinger goldfinger
Yup, I am short S&P. Blair on TV opposing Brexit. Dangerous man. Why hasn't somebody shot him?.
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
AUDNZD -- just looks like a 4th wave correction 1.0850 looks prime
17 February
usxau usxau
Alex if I'd know that ...I'd have many friends! LOL Personally I think the US still looks good
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
AUDUSD little bounce off 161.8%... with this also being our bespoke support, time to lower (set) stop
17 February
trendy trendy
Sabrina, are you thinking about a dxy falling?
17 February
usxau usxau
Trendy, no I think DXY will be supported, we had super data points out of US, FED hawkish and talking about rate hikes, whereas the rest of the world has 'huge' problems :)
17 February
trendy trendy
Not quite bounce, stays flat last minutes
17 February
trendy trendy
Cad is superman today, very stiff...
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
LOL .....
17 February
trendy trendy
Alex, what is saxo select, please?
17 February
usxau usxau
Ian nice call on AUDUSD - Kudos :)
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
thank you .... :-)
17 February
trendy trendy
Ian, I am already thinking what I will trade when you'll be in vacation...
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
lol.. I am off for a week March 20-24th ... skiing with a very dangerous bunch of lads .. then you've got me until August !
17 February
usxau usxau
Well I'll be skiing next week - can't wait ;) Although not dangerously as I am 'en familie' :)
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
have a great holiday ......
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
you know... I 'think' we might get another dip in the USD ... 100.25 is prime support and we were short ... not sure but could see this...
17 February
usxau usxau
Gents, (not sure if there are any other ladies here! ) a lot is already baked into the gbp, however the frenchies no starting to talk grand qualitions (socialist and far-left) has not yet been priced into the euro imo!
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
EURUSD and USDCHF did not hit our prime levels (1.0695 and 0.9955).... .... got to be wiling to add-in
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
taking a break
17 February
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
just looking at EURUSD at the mo
17 February
AlexF AlexF
Thanks Ian yes 1.085 is long term TP for UBS, just read some comments and AUD topping but probably vs USD
17 February
trendy trendy
Alex, what is saxo select?
17 February
AlexF AlexF
Hi Trendy saxoselect is a Saxo srategy you can invest in they have several, I personnally invest in 4 global stock picker, morningstar, discretionary trading and macro forex. On macro forex and discretionary tu put it simply you are following the trades a a pro trader selected by Saxo...check their web site or call your saxo account manager
17 February
AlexF AlexF
Global stock picker is basically the wealth management team of saxo and they are doing very well this year, morning star is excellent value strategy
17 February
AlexF AlexF
Eg my macro forex took just now a short AUDUSD position thats also why I asked Ian about AUDNZD outlook.
17 February
AlexF AlexF
BTW anyone looking at the new autochrtist feature from saxo ? opinion ? I prefer to go directly to autochartist.com to be honest...
17 February
trendy trendy
What entry audusd?
17 February
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
ok but if you look i have never seen a 75% chance trade in the highlighted box not many for 65% as well
17 February
trendy trendy
Good idea to short footsie?
17 February
Smakodak Smakodak
Hi Ian, Thanks !! yesterday you mentioned USDJPY and no resist. before 112.10, whats your near term take on USDJPY, I'm looking to go long :-)
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
morning .... near term is 113.61
17 February
trendy trendy
footsie on green; brexit canceled?
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I am looking at buying at 112.10 ... nothing at current levels
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I only look at FX Trendy
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
in fact .. I am out of everything at the mo
17 February
trendy trendy
Sorry, don't want to bother, but today is possible to crack indexes
17 February
touqeer touqeer
I am learning a lot from this fourm...
17 February
MSN28 MSN28
Ian, do you think audusd lost its momentum? time to exit?
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
just not 100% on the USD at the moment
17 February
trendy trendy
Late to enter short on cad?
17 February
usxau usxau
With no data this afternoon, we might see the most action once Trump takes to Twitter! :)
17 February
trendy trendy
Posted some "smart" line? This is the reason indexes are moving up?
17 February
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
hes just getting ready
17 February
usxau usxau
That's funny Andrew! :)
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
lol.. he looks a little concerned !!!!
17 February
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
FAKE NEWS
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I think without a 'tweet' we might well be done for this week
17 February
usxau usxau
We need a new tweeting trump indicator! ;) Well he might 'air' some stupid comment at that demonstration planned for later today!
17 February
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
looks that way Ian
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
LOL.... like it !
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Right ... I think I am done... The market has been extremely kind this week (letting me out of my mistakes). Lets hope we can keep the winning run going... I will only be posting 'calls' where I get the set up and am in the trarde......... but will outline views and what we are looking at .... have a great weekend all...... its been a real pleasure
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
if EURUSD or USCHF get to 1.0700 or 0.9945 I will take another look .... LOL.. never say never (alarms set)
17 February
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
you closing AUDUSD ?
17 February
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
yep ... out of everything
17 February
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
closed just before the bell have a good weekend mate speak Monday if not before
17 February
trendy trendy
CAD finally delivered...
17 February
seas seas
G10 worries, Trump put a wrench it.
17 February
seas seas
Makes alot of sence though- especially if demand for iron ore abates.
17 February
seas seas
long usdchf, usdyen now

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