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Squawk / 06 October 2017 at 12:43 GMT
Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
Denmark
US September jobs report a real mixed bag, but strong reasons to look through the weak payrolls data. The initial headline grabber on today's US employment report was the drop in the September non-farm payrolls of -33k and -38k revision to the prior two months' data. But there is strong reason to look through this data as hurricane related, as other evidence, like both ISM surveys, points to a strong jobs market.
Also more positive: we had a sudden leap in the Sep. Average Hourly Earnings to 2.9% YoY from 2.6% expected (and Aug. revised up to 2.7% from 2.5%). As well, the unemployment rate dropped to a low-for-the-cycle 4.2%, though this does look a bit fishy, given the participation rate actually rose +0.2%. That means a very strong household survey pointing to large job growth for the month. All in all - this sharply increases the odds of a December rate hike and is theoretically USD supportive, the caveat being bigger issues out there like Yellen's replacement and tax reform.

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