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John J Hardy
Outrageous Predictions 2017 is out today and, if the UK government sticks to its avowed aim, then it will invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty by the end of March. But John J Hardy sees a potential volte-face as the EU and the UK think again.
Article / 27 September 2016 at 22:55 GMT

US Market Wrap: FX markets lost and looking for direction

FX Consultant / IFXA Ltd
Canada
Saxo
 rates
 
Watchlist:

  • Nothing of note

US Data released:

  • S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Actual 5.0% vs forecast 5.1%)
  • Consumer confidence (Actual 104.4 vs forecast 99.0)
  • API Crude Stocks Change (Actual -0.752 million barrels vs. previous -7.49 m/b)


FX traders are lost and looking for direction. They didn’t get any from last night's Trump/Clinton debate and they didn’t get any from today’s US data. Consumer confidence may have risen but the rest of the data wasn’t any help. Oil price movements are just confusing.

EURUSD was choppy; falling from 1.1250 at the open to 1.1190 as Europe was calling it quits for the day. It then drifted higher into the close.  USDJPY bottomed out at 100.08 at breakfast and shot up to 100.98 by mid-afternoon. The proximity to Japan’s half-year end may have contributed to the move. GBPUSD rallied all session and never looked back.

Oil prices slid throughout the morning amid hopes for some sort of production cap deal being announced in Algiers. A glimmer of hope was presented in the afternoon on a report that Saudi Arabia was willing to cut production if Iran limited its output. Iran declined, oil drifted lower but rebounded at the end of the day on the API news on US crude supply. The negotiations continue.

US equity indices recovered most of yesterday’s pre-debate losses, helped by the better than expected consumer confidence report.


i
Traders didn’t get any direction from last night's Trump/Clinton debate, or from today’s US data. Photo: iStock

Opinion:

The presidential debate is now a memory and Saxo Bank Head of FX Strategy, John Hardy, wasn't impressed with the post-debate price action.  Check out FX Update: Presidential debates wash over FX.


– Edited by Susan McDonald


Michael O'Neill is an FX consultant at IFXA Ltd. Follow Mike or post your comment below to
engage with Saxo Bank's social trading platform.


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