Oil has hit a 15-month high on the back of optimism over the Opec deal which needs to be sorted out by November 30. But, with a record long position building across the combined benchmarks, a disappointment could leave some exposed. Full report to come within the hour....
Article / 02 August 2016 at 22:25 GMT

US Market Wrap: Driving (Miss) Dollar, down

FX Consultant / IFXA Ltd

  • Australia: AIG Performance of Services Index (1930 GMT) 
  • Japan: Bank of Japan policy meeting minutes (1950 GMT) 
  • New Zealand: ANZ Commodity Price-July (2100 GMT) 
  • China: Caixin China Services PMI (2145 GMT) 

US data released

  • Personal Income and Expenditures June (Actual 0.9% vs. forecast 0.9% y/y)) 
  • American Petroleum Institute (API) Crude Stocks Change (Actual -1.3 m/b vs previous week -8.27 m/b 

The US dollar was driven lower all day in keeping with the prior European and Asia moves. Today’s PCE data didn’t do anything for the greenback as it was largely as expected but falling oil prices and concern over the strength of the US recovery encouraged US dollar selling. It didn’t help matters that USDJPY pushed below 101.00.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped for the seventh consecutive day. The Big Three automakers, GM, Ford and Toyota, posted sales declines which the Wall Street Journal suggests is evidence of economic growth plateauing. It could also just be evidence of a slow summer, pre-payrolls market.

Oil, oil, everywhere. WTI actually rose in early trading and then someone thought, “Why?" The drop from $40.88 was furious and WTI hit $39.23 before drifting higher into the close. The end-of-day API data won’t do anything to curb the enthusiasm of oil bears.

 Look up, look down. WTI prices reversed direction during the day and hit $39.23
 before closing slightly higher at the close. Photo: iStock


If you don't have any concerns about the pending US presidential election you may change your mind after reading Saxo Bank editor, Michael McKenna's article: "Priced out of the 'open society'.

– Edited by Gayle Bryant

Michael O'Neill is an FX consultant at IFXA Ltd. Follow Mike or post your comment below to
engage with Saxo Bank's social trading platform.

Missed a day? Here’s what we had to say during our Asian session and our regular European Morning Markets, From the Floor and Mid-session Europe.
03 August
John Shaw John  Shaw
Welcome to the dogs days of August my good friends.
Low liquidity and you'll be amazed at how the employment numbers and other "data" come into match "expectations" in the last half of this election year. LOL


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