Article / 01 August 2017 at 23:28 GMT

US Market Wrap: Dollar edges higher, commodity currencies underperform

FX Trade Strategist /
saxo rates

Watch list

  • New Zealand: Employment Report 1845 GMT 
  • Australia: Building Permits 2130 GMT 

US data released

  • Personal Income/Expenditures Price Index--June (Actual 1.4% v s. forecast 1.3%, y/y) 
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI-June (Actual 56.3 vs forecast 56.5)) 
  • Constructions Spending-June (Actual -1.3% vs. forecast -0.4%) 
  • API Weekly Crude Stocks change (Actual 1.79 million barrels vs. previous -10.22 m//b) 

The greenback started the New York session trying to push back against persistent selling. For today, it was successful. The US dollar drifted modestly higher against the euro, Sterling and the Swiss franc, while had more success against the commodity currency bloc.

This morning’s US economic data was on the soft side, but that didn’t lead to much US dollar selling largely because it will all have been forgotten by the time the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting rolls around. The ISM Manufacturing PMI came out a little worse than had been forecast, which may have been payback from the 2.8% gain in May.

EURUSD traded in a 1.1786-1.1835 band. It was sneaking down to the start the day and although it finished lower than where it opened, it still closed at 1.1800.

Sterling is still in nose-bleed territory. GBPUSD traded in a 1.3198-1.3242 range and although it closed below the day’s high, traders don’t appear too concerned about the upcoming “Super Thursday” risk.

USDJPY was lively. It dropped from ¥110.53 to ¥109.92 after the weaker than expected ISM Manufacturing PMI. That move quickly reversed and USDJPY rallied to close unchanged on the day.

NZDUSD was enjoying a morning rally, rising from 0.7463 to 0.7492 when the Global Dairy Trade auction results were announced. The 1.6% drop in prices drove NZDUSD to 0.7465 and the pair spent the rest of the day in 0.7465-0.7485 range. AUDUSD traded in a similar fashion. USDCAD was bid from the open rising from 1.2455 to 1.2537 at the close on the back of what appeared to be a large order, and due to falling oil prices.

WTI oil dropped 2.0% today on a Reuters report that Opec production rose in July. Pouring salt on the wound was the increase in US crude inventories reported by the American Petroleum Association at the end of the day.

Wall Street started the month with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average came within spitting distance of 22,000 around the lunch hour, but eased off into the close. Apple (Aapl: Nasdaq) rose 5.33% in after-hours trading after Q3 earnings beat expectations.


NZDUSD retreated following the news of a 1.6% drop in prices at the Global Dairy Trade auction. Photo: Shutterstock


There isn't anything special about EURUSD at 1.2000 suggests Saxo Bank Technical Analyst Kim Cramer Larsson in: Why EURUSD could run to 1.25

The chances of a UK rate hike this week are a higher than what the market thinks writes TradingFloor contributor Neil Staines in: Don't rule out a British rate rise

For more on forex, click here.

– Edited by Robert Ryan

Michael O'Neill is an FX consultant, currency strategist and author of the Trade of the Day at Follow Mike or post your comment below to engage with Saxo Bank's social trading platform.

Missed a day? Here’s what we had to say during our Asia session, our regular European Morning Markets, From the Floor and Mid-session Europe.


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail