Article / 29 June 2016 at 22:45 GMT

US Market Wrap: Crude oil rally gives commodity currencies a lift

FX Trade Strategist /

Japan: Watchlist:

  • Industrial Production 2350 GMT 
  • Japan: Foreign Investment 2350 GMT                                                      

US Data released

  • Personal Income-May (Actual 0.2% vs. forecast 0.3%, m/m) 
  • Pending Home Sales-May (Actual -3.7% vs. forecast -1.1%, m/m) 
  • EIA Crude Stocks Change (Actual -4.05 mln barrels vs. previous week's -0.917 mln barrels) 

Sterling traders had a busy session. GBPUSD opened up with a bid at 1.3412 and climbed all the way to 1.3532 as Europe closed for the day. That was the signal to sell, and GBPUSD then drifted back down to where it had opened. 

EURUSD fared much better. It gained throughout the morning and then added to these gains in the afternoon, finishing at the high. USDJPY was fairly calm throughout the morning but then popped up in the afternoon and it too closed at the day's high.

New York inherited risk-on sentiment from Europe and US equity indices were all higher at the end of the day. The equity moves were supported by a rally in crude oil prices and for some, the belief that Brexit concerns have faded. 

The Energy Information Admiration report of a 4.05 million barrel drawdown took WTI from a low of $48.01/barrel to $50.00/b. An oil analyst at a major European Bank in New York is questioning the bullish oil sentiment. He pointed out that this is the time of year for US crude drawdowns and this year's draws are at just half the pace of last year's. Even worse, this year's storage levels are substantially higher.


 Bullish oil sentiment may not last, given that this year's US crude drawdowns are well below last year's, and storage levels are much higher. Photo: iStock


Saxo Bank's Head of FX Strategy, John Hardy warns of further volatility ahead in: Brexit just a warm-up for global market convulsions

TradingFloor contributor, Fxtime describes relatively simple strategies to consider in: Maxima Minima — where art thou?

For more on forex, click here.

– Edited by Robert Ryan

Michael O'Neill is an FX consultant at IFXA Ltd. Follow Mike or post your comment below to engage with Saxo Bank's social trading platform.

Missed a day? Here’s what we had to say during our Asian session and our regular European Morning Markets, From the Floor and Mid-session Europe


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