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John J Hardy
In this latest webinar, Saxo Bank's head of FX strategy John Hardy analyses the market with topics including synchronised global growth, Saxo’s global risk indicator and data surprises.
Squawk / 08 July 2016 at 12:53 GMT
Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
US Jobs Report initial verdict: good, not great. The US June jobs numbers were good, but not great, with the chief relief for USD bulls the strong beat in the Change in Nonfarm Payrolls at +287k vs. +180k expected and with a mere -6k net revision to the previous two months' data. Still, on a moving average basis, this still merely represents mean reversion after the May payrolls catastrophe.

Less stellar was the unemployment rate ticking back up to 4.9% from May's 4.7%, though that was in part due to the unrealistic drop in May from 5.0% in April on a large drop in the participation rate, which ticked 0.1% higher in June. The household survey registered a mere +67k jobs.

Also disappointing was average hourly earnings merely ticking up +0.1% month-on-month vs. +0.2% expected. All in all, this is USD supportive at the margin and perhaps especially versus safe havens like JPY and CHF as well as versus the EUR, with fewer implications elsewhere as long as risk appetite is strong.


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