09 March 2018 at 13:42 GMT
US Jobs Report boosts the old Goldilocks narrative. The US jobs report was a head-scratcher for traders after the January data. Most importantly, the average hourly earnings number came in lower than expected (0.1% MoM and +2.6% YoY and Jan. data revised down slightly to 2.8% YoY), making it difficult to argue that the Fed needs to panic and busy themselves yanking the rate hike lever to stave off a wage-price spiral. At the same time, the payrolls growth was very strong at +313k vs. +205k expected and a +54k revision to the prior two months' data on top of that. As well, the household survey was very strong, as the participation rate rose +0.3% to match the high of the range of last three years, while the Unemployment rate was steady at 4.1%.
The USD may not do much if US rates stay flat, on the other hand this is very strong payrolls data and certainly will help lead to a confident Fed hike and forward guidance at the March FOMC meeting. I generally see this as USD supportive.