US president Donald Trump's latest round of tariffs land squarely on Europe, Mexico, and Canada with the consequent slowdown in trade likely to reduce demand for oil and refinery products, and transportation fuels in particular.
Squawk / 03 June 2016 at 12:36 GMT
Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
US Jobs report: a negative shocker of a report on the headline as we see a +38k on payrolls vs. +160k expected and on top of that a revision of the prior two months data of -59k, so the net growth with revision was outright negative. If there are any positives in this report, one might point to the ironic drop in the unemployment rate to 4.7% from 5.0%, though this was partially due to the participation rate dropping 0.2%. As well, Average Hourly Earnings did rise +2.5% in line with expectations and near the highs for the cycle.

But with the very ugly payrolls growth headline, this data point puts the June Fed rate hike scenario on ice and may even lower the potential for any message that points to a July hike until/unless we see a notable recovery in the June jobs numbers. First test for USDJPY is 107.80 (notable Fibo) and 1.1315 in EURUSD. Keep in mind we have the ISM non-manufacturing data point up shortly.


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