Short term
Trade view / 06 September 2016 at 22:42 GMT

UPDATE: Profits taken on orange juice and corn

Managing Partner / Spotlight Group
United Kingdom

I apologise for not reporting in real time ... busy in meetings with Turkish contacts this afternoon.

Target orders were filled:

Orange Juice (OJX6): Short at 189.00 as per the trade view last week:

My first two targets to the downside were 185.21 and 181.95.

The first was achieved and there was a a degree of weak follow-through. As that faded, I covered at 185.08 to make 2.12%, or 577% annualised.

Today I had a short-term perspective on corn (ZCZ6) with a short at 326.25, please see here.

I said that the market was being dominated by sellers who may have taken their short exposure to the limit. The downside was muted, so I covered at 324.10 . Profit was 0.66%, or 1017% annualised.

— Edited by Susan McDonald

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
07 September
Philidor Philidor
Hi Stephen. Solid trades! I wonder, do you have statistics on how you have fared in commodities only, the past 24 months or so?
07 September
Stephen Pope Stephen Pope
Philidor, I can retrieve the data and reply somewhat later if I may.
07 September
Stephen Pope Stephen Pope
Hi there Philidor,

A mixed bag really.

2014 Avg gain +5.65% (+618.47% Ann) over 31 trades
2014 Avg loss -5.69% (-264.32% Ann) over 17 trades
2014 Net -0.04% (+354.15% Ann)

2015 Avg gain +2.84% (+1433.52% Ann) over 72 trades
2015 Avg loss -4.83% (-126,98% Ann) over 23 trades
2015 Net -1.99% (_1306.53% Ann)

2016 YTD Avg gain +5.69% (an unrealistic +69436.09% Ann) over 35 trades
2016 YTD Avg loss -3.69% ( -50.28% Ann) over 7 trades
2016 YTD Net +2.0% (-69385.81% Ann)

Improving but must try harder!!!!!

09 September
Philidor Philidor
Thanks! I had the impression the numbers would me more on the plus side than neutral. Maybe I've been lucky with the ones I picked out of your recommendations.
09 September
Stephen Pope Stephen Pope
In my defence I have shown average gain less average loss .

I can recalculate absolute % (gain - loss) which would be more flattering.

Send you that later.
10 September
Stephen Pope Stephen Pope
Dear Philidor,

I ran over the numbers in terms of total gains and losses as against averages and net average.

The data now is far more encouraging...I think I have been underselling my returns. So FYI

Commodity Trading Net Return:

2014 + 77.82%

2015 + 93.59%

2016 +172.31%


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