Today's edition of the Saxo Morning Call features the SaxoStrats team discussing the continuing weakness of the US dollar as commodity prices recover ground and in the wake of key US equity indices hitting all-time highs Thursday.
Article / 03 April 2017 at 10:27 GMT

UPDATE: Trade summary for Q1 2017

Managing Partner / Spotlight Group
United Kingdom

This is a summary of the performance of the trades undertaken in the course of Q1 2017.
As I reported at the start of the year, several trades were closed during my December/January break as established stops were achieved.

*It is not a trade view or market comment.

As the returns for the full year of 2016 had been reported before I left for the seasonal Christmas and New Year holiday I decided to carry the trades closed out during the vacation into 2017. This gave me a key boost of +10.30%.
 Source: Spotlight Capital

The tables above captures the basis of the portfolio. It has on average 15 open positions that can be engaged in active asset investment. Currently there are 10 active positions and the other five have, as was specified at the start of the year been placed into the one-year US Treasury Bill. This serves well as a neutral, near cash instrument.

Gains or losses are divided by 15 to reflect their weight in the overall portfolio...of course if a weighting of “N” is assigned that will be reported at trade initiation and the return, profit or loss weighted by a factor of “N”:

• (Return % x N) / 15

The overall return is 12.935% with the 2016 transfer so making the pure 2017 return equal to 2.635%.

The ratio of trades that have been closed and booked gains relative to those with losses is 
4.5 x. 

Then if the trades that are still open is included it rises to 5.5 x.

I hope the trade performance can accelerate during Q2 2017, and I will report the results when the end of June has passed.

— Edited by Martin O'Rourke
SierraPt. SierraPt.
Dear Steve, are you long or short TB?
ChristianK ChristianK
Hi Steve. Thanks for sharing. Are you still short cotton or not?
Stephen Pope Stephen Pope
Hi SierraPt,

I am long 1 Year T the slots of the portfolio were the cash has not been committed.

If I take a long position in another asset, once sold I reinvest in TB's at the rate available at that time on the 1 year again.
Stephen Pope Stephen Pope
Hi ChristianK,
Back on March 3rd I set a profit protection on my cotton at 77...a small profit during a rather whippy time for the commodity.

I will be reassessing later this week.

Krunil48 Krunil48
Hi Steve and thanks for putting up the above tables which give a clear picture. I can see from the table bottom right that there have been 26 trades total of which 11 closed therefore 15 open. The main table/ left shows 15 positions although I thought some of these were closed. I can also see that the average of these 15 is 1.2479 and which shows in black in the table mid right. The figures in green (0.367) and red (1.0207) above the figure 1.248 I do not understand. If you could let me know what these represent I would be most grateful and also whether the main table is showing a mixture of closed and open positions or all closed. Thanks.
Stephen Pope Stephen Pope
Dear Krunil48,

I owe you a debt as you have exposed a flaw in my spreadsheet.

Firstly the red entries of 1.0207 and 7.669333 should have been multiplied by -1 as in they are losses.

That significantly affects the overall falls to I have not been so skillful!

The table of 15 positions is what is open now...i.e. open active asset investment and the "passive" holding of T Bills.

The closed trades number 9 in profit and 2 with losses.

Sometimes a trade is closed as a protection or stop is set if I going to be away from the desk for a while...It can be reopened as with the recent case of the Dollar Index.

I have agreed with the platform to submit one trade idea per week...I do make other trades for Spotlight Capital...but not all be reported here. That is why I want to provide a summary at the end of each quarter.

Krunil48 Krunil48
Many thanks and now all clear. Personally, to keep your account in profit is all good to me and that what you show here is the pure ungeared return on the instruments traded. Obviously, if you had put down a 10% deposit on each of the above trades your return is 10 times that shown, less interest. I havn't made a trade for the last year but before that I was about 17% down on my previous 100 trades. Without spread I would have been in profit by about 5 -10% (all by memory). I only trade very short term as I do not have your economic insights. Thanks for all your articles.
vanita vanita
Dear Steve,
I have oil short position @49.25.
I should wait or closed the position what's your suggest ?
I can wait if it's likely to cum down or can do average .
Thanks take care.
Stephen Pope Stephen Pope
Dear Vanita,

This oil trade is proving to be asking the question..."How much pain can you take?"

I have a stop loss at 55 as I see the area of 54.77 -- 54.97 as critical...break up over 55 and the price can approach 60...61 and even 64.

The techncials are a mix of neutral at shortest and longest time horizons with buy or strong buy in the middle. But the spot is threatening the 55 day moving average.

I am short around 48 and so it is painful...but I am sticking with my 55 stop. If it goes wrong I may have to make a quick 180 degree turn and ride a long wave for a short period of time...but I am not quitting just yet.

Yours sincerely,

vanita vanita
Thanks Steve I have put 55.31 as a stoploss so i am to stick with stoploss hope it's make u turn as today after crude inventory .
Thanks for guidance.


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