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Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
Clive Lambert of FuturesTechs explains why he is trading USDCAD. he is looking to sell a rally to 1.3130, place a stop above 1.3170-75, and look for further weakness back to the 1.2969 low from late January. His timeframe is one week.
Squawk / 05 July 2016 at 7:51 GMT
Hypothesis Testing
United Kingdom
Update on USDCAD trade suggested yesterday....not a great success as only +25 was banked. I will look to re-enter later.
TBH I had expected a stronger impulse move but lets see what we can get later today.
05 July
kom75 kom75
I did only 10, but always better than nothing:)
05 July
fxtime fxtime
Hey well done mate...view it as a free profit. The trade was a probability play anyway so we were only seeking advantage of skew etc however should the USD CAD fail to break yesterdays day high then the trade set up is valid again :-)
In the meantime for the Loon we await 12noon reference point.
Kom tomorrows' article will show an intraday diary for these and other trades which may be of assistance.
05 July
kom75 kom75
i wait as always:). Btw. I like your cad strategy, similar to sp500:) simple and profitable
05 July
marran marran
i managed to get 12 pips out of the trade then cursed myself for not being a bit more greedy! but hayho its still profit!
05 July
fxtime fxtime
Hey I am simple :-)
The secret is discipline to stick to the trade constraints. All the trade set ups are backtested and I usually give the data on site.....the point is to ensure we all get revenue growth each day so well done at doing the trades.
05 July
fxtime fxtime
Marran well done.....we all can say in hindsight what we could have earned but the point is....you made a profit. All my trade set ups are for minimum points earned with very high probability of success. Next time you see this set up you will be ready for it so a good call and a nice profit :-)
05 July
marran marran
usdcad very bullish now, are you still in a buy trade
05 July
fxtime fxtime
No....I agree it seems bullish but as I trade for commercials who regard time as a risk factor then we always minimise risk and seek the fastest return on capital employed with the highest factor of probability of success. There are plenty of trade management styles to adjust stops and taking of profits but my sole aim is to build working trade strategy models for readers who can then develop their own positional management......it seems you are certainly on a fast track Marran and will gain more points than me :-)
05 July
marran marran
Well mate it seems like you are doing a brilliant job of building trade strategy models that are profitable, and i for one thank you for that and for sharing with us
05 July
fxtime fxtime
You are welcome :-)
05 July
fxtime fxtime
Caution on the Loon....1.2965 = 2 std devs....any further rally will be squeezed at some point IMHO.
05 July
marran marran
seems to be still going strong
06 July
fxtime fxtime
Indeed LOL.....no worries there will be more profits each day....I tend to view the market move as missed but a strong profit banked and no risk.
06 July
fxtime fxtime
Interesting we are now heading back to the 1.2965 region ...then I assume we bounce fwiw.
06 July
fxtime fxtime
Worked again...yipppeeeeeee :-)
07 July
marran marran
will you be trading the system on nfp day?
07 July
fxtime fxtime
Yes the NFP occurs after the open range point and the trade is biased towards the minimum move. Anything to do with FOMC causes mayhem to the range trade set up which is the second strategy but the +5 trade remains robust. FWIW the trade in truth relies on a price fixing point adjustment that occurs within the ''open range'' candle we use and from that we assume that there will be further minor adjustments to occur hence the small profit target of +5.
It worked twice yesterday :-)
But the second range strategy failed...it did go nicely in profit but never reached the target level as missed by 8pips I believe....FOMC mins last night may have made the market illiquid but a profit could have been made easy enough.
07 July
fxtime fxtime
TBH ....I am surprised at how much interest there is on the USDCAD so it might be worth posting some trades that run for 2 - 3 days onsite.
07 July
marran marran
if its trading a narrow range and the pending order is not taken quickly how long would you leave the trade on for?
07 July
fxtime fxtime
The trades remain valid for the day....so far we have not had a trade opened...chart attached fwiw
07 July
marran marran
thanks
07 July
fxtime fxtime
Marran...presume you've had a trade opened and banked an easy +5....how I love these payroll trades :-)
07 July
fxtime fxtime
chart updated for you :-)
The long order is obviously unfilled but remains for the whole of today. If you look at yesterdays chart you will see it triggered twice.
07 July
marran marran
yes managed to bank 6 pips so happy with that! i was going to ask about the buy trade but you have answered my question! how many pips to you put above or below the bar as a pending order?
07 July
fxtime fxtime
Yeah good man....drinks on you then LOL.
07 July
fxtime fxtime
second trade stopped out at 1.2923 = 24pip loss....however I have reset the same long order day only as I suspect we are having a shake out. Overall since I started posting these trades for the last 10 trading days thankfully you are easilly in profit...phew :-)
07 July
marran marran
i put the trades on few pips above and below the bar as a result the buy trade wasnt taken so i still have the pending trade if it recovers. I did this by mistake and im not sure it will make for a long term plan, but my fortune for today is its worked
07 July
fxtime fxtime
The trade has triggered and worked again mate.....normally I set the buy and short orders 2pips away from the trading range but the law of sod caught me it seems but still some pennies recouped.
07 July
fxtime fxtime
Can't remember if I said this before....but should the first stage trade fail for any reason do not open a range trade subsequently. They are binary events....the first must succeed before commencing to the next trade set up. Today we had two open range breaks but the second one failed therefore stand aside for the ab=cd range trade.
08 July
marran marran
have you tried this with the eurusd/gbpusd maybe the 8am bar?
08 July
marran marran
that should have said the 7am bar on close at 8am!
08 July
fxtime fxtime
Eurusd and cable are traded the same way for 7am -9am range and then amended to 9am to 10am range....the latter range remains for the rest of the day.
7am - 9am is 84% probable and 9 - 10range is 91% probable.
Dax would be 9-10am only....89% probable
FTSE 8am - 9am only....89% probable
Hope this helps :-)
08 July
fxtime fxtime
I am quoting UK times.
08 July
fxtime fxtime
On these strategies across the markets I trade I average 45pips per day fwiw
The eurgbp is always traded via ROC trade models which are posted on site.
08 July
marran marran
when you say 7-9 range and then 9-10 range are you meaning you would place seperate trades on both ranges?
08 July
fxtime fxtime
Initially use the 7 - 9 range then adjust to 9-10....often you will gain from both ranges.
08 July
fxtime fxtime
If for example the market rallied up through the ranges I would leave a short outstanding order to be filed normally on the (-10 range unless we have a chance of whipsaw effects such as today with NFP then I would utilise the lower value trigger point. Vice versa for early drops etc.
08 July
fxtime fxtime
Remember this is NFP day.....so always trade the highest probability trades only. You don't need to chase the market after all.
08 July
fxtime fxtime
I am OFF site all day so best of luck. Any queries then just ask and I will respond this evening when I am back. Best of luck.

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