UPDATE: Bonds are still on the wane
- Bund and T-note futures weaken along with gilts
- This week has started with a weaker tone that looks to extend
- We've established key levels for all three against this backdrop
Until last week, when we saw something of a rebound across the board, bund and T-note futures both recovered from important Fibonacci supports, so the bulls may have been thinking that all was well once more. But this week has started with a weaker tone and this looks set to continue, so I thought I'd "go again" and look at the charts for these three key markets and see what they're saying, and what the key downside levels/targets are:
Bund futures (Dec '16):
US T-notes (10-year notes), Dec '16:
One reason this chart is so bearish is the failure to even close above the shorter term Fibonacci resistance at 130.12 on this recovery...
Long gilt futures (Dec '16):
This is the one that's been leading the way lower, giving a number of sell signals around the middle of the month, breaking the neckline of a Head and Shoulders topping pattern, Fibonacci support AND a rising trendline, all within the space of a few days. And we've gone lower since, down to a low of 125.30 last week, when a "Hammer" candle on the daily stopped the rot.
Upon seeing this reversal candle the bulls were tasked with getting us back above 127.19 (the broken Fibonacci level). Despite a couple of attempts in recent sessions they're not managing this, at least not on any kind of sustained basis.
This suggests we'll soon be retesting 125.30. Below here 124.35-55 is a big area of support. Below here look for 123.21 then 122.65.
– Edited by Clare MacCarthy