Video

Kay Van-Petersen
Back in December 2016, Saxo global macro strategist Kay Van-Petersen predicted that Bitcoin would test $2,000. The cryptocurrency hit that level in May this year - now he makes another prediction.
Article / 10 December 2014 at 9:09 GMT

La Russie fait à nouveau défaut

Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
Denmark
Saxo Bank reste convaincue du potentiel à long terme de la Russie, mais l’économie du pays se dirigeait déjà vers la récession et le déficit courant avant même les sanctions, la chute de 25% des prix du pétrole et le conflit avec l’Ukraine. Ces problèmes relèvent désormais de l’urgence et rien ne l’illustre mieux que le rouble et sa chute de 40% (face au dollar) cette année.
 
Une magnifique tempête se prépare du côté de l’économie russe, ce qui pourrait se traduire par un défaut sélectif soit de sociétés étatiques, soit de l’Etat lui-même. Cela pourrait être un épisode d’une escalade entre la Russie et le bloc US/UE ou être entraîné par un manque d’accès au financement.
 
Les sociétés russes doivent rembourser 134 milliards de dollars de dettes entre 2014 et fin 2015. Bien sûr, cela est adossé à 400 milliards de dollars de réserves de change. Cela laisse un peu de temps à la Russie, mais entre la loi Rotenberg (qui vise à rembourser aux propriétaires d’entreprises russes l’argent perdu à cause des sanctions), l’intervention sur le rouble, le déficit courant à venir, l’important déficit budgétaire (manque à gagner sur les taxes et revenus pétroliers), et un accès proche de zéro aux financements sur les marchés de capitaux, ces 400 milliards de dollars risquent de faire figure de menue monnaie.
 
La Russie apparaît déjà durablement sous-valorisée, que ce soit pour son énergie, ses mines, ses sociétés ou sa population. En conséquence, un nouveau départ (comme en 1998) est sans doute ce dont a besoin le pays pour son avenir, mais il a aussi besoin d’une solution diplomatique en Ukraine.
Relevant articles for you

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Tradingfloor.com permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Tradingfloor.com and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Tradingfloor.com is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Tradingfloor.com or as a result of the use of the Tradingfloor.com. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through Tradingfloor.com your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. Tradingfloor.com does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail