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Clive Lambert - FuturesTechs
Clive Lambert of FuturesTechs explains why he is trading USDJPY. He plans to buy a break above 112.21 - 112.34 with a 50 tick stop. His targets are 113.42 and 114.50. Clive Lambert explains the background to a selected trade every Friday on Trading Floor.
Day trade
Trade view / 24 August 2016 at 7:39 GMT

Triangle highlights continued weakness in USDJPY

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom
Instrument: USDJPY
Price target:
Market price:
Background

USD Index – In our video report on Tuesday we mentioned the USD index would likely to stay within the 94.90-94.15 range and our preferred setup was to buy on USD dips. We made a 94.19 low yesterday and have moved to the upside. Prices are now at mid-range and we are likely to see choppy trading today until an eventual breakout.

Choppy USDJPY 
USD Index
Source: Saxo Bank

The medium-term picture remains mixed with this timeframe highlighting a possible bullish Head-and-Shoulders breakout (bullish) while the daily channel highlights a corrective channel (bearish) 

This uncertainty is reflected in most of the FX majors but selling into gains in USDJPY today offers a good set up. 

Monthly – The long-term bias is still skewed to the upside with a potential bullish reverse Head and Shoulders forming. However, the last two months have posted inside candles, a clear sign of indecision at current levels. 

Head-and-shoulders pattern
USDJPY M
Source: Saxo Bank

Weekly – We can clearly see a completed five-wave Elliott-wave formation. However, we cannot rule out a possible fifth wave extension, possibly to form the Head of a bullish reverse Head-and-Shoulders pattern. Far too early to tell. 

Is there a reverse head-and-shoulders pattern in the offing?
USDJPY w
Source: Saxo Bank 

Daily – Broke the channel to the downside but have since posted five inside soldiers (candles) as we consolidate ahead of Jackson Hole. 

Consolidation ahead of Jackson Hole
USDJPY D
 Source: Saxo Bank

Intraday – This consolidation has resulted in a symmetrical triangle being posted on the intraday chart. This has an eventual bias to break lower (we wouldn’t hold too much of a bias, with the next move likely to be based on fundamentals).

The trend of lower highs and our bespoke resistance come in at 100.75. This is our prime short entry today (only).

Symmetrical triangle on the intraday chart
USDJPY one
 Source: Saxo Bank

Management and risk description

Parameters

Entry: selling at 100.70.

Stop:101.00.

Target: intraday 100.02 (triangle base). Medium term possibly 98.00 (congestion area).

Time horizon: today to trigger.

— Edited by Martin O'Rourke

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
24 August
HaythamSabry HaythamSabry
Hi Ian, do you still consider this trade as a "go"?
24 August
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
yes ... but signals are not strong ...
24 August
AlexF AlexF
USDJPY moving now what is next strong resistance 100.8 ?
24 August
Raj-900 Raj-900
Ian,
Is this trade still on?
24 August
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
100.75 and 101.10 .... I see no reason to cancel it as yet
24 August
AlexF AlexF
What level is for you a sign of confirmation towards 102.5 ? When we can add ?
24 August
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
??? I think its stalls and reverses lower
24 August
AlexF AlexF
I meant 100.75 or 101.1 is more significant
24 August
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I think 75 should hold as it is trend and bespoke resistance ... 101.10 is a daily barrier
24 August
AlexF AlexF
but agee no strenght so far
24 August
AlexF AlexF
thanks

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