Video

#SaxoStrats
​The Trump administration has not yet formally deployed the long-awaited latest $200 billion in tariffs against China, but a new Wall Street Journal report indicates that Japan might be next on the agenda.
Day trade
Trade view / 17 October 2014 at 3:03 GMT

Trading for a 5th Wave decline in USDJPY

Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
New Zealand
Instrument: USDJPY
Price target:
Market price:
Background

Investor sentiment remains fragile after the gyrations of the last two trading days and while this continues JPY will retain its traditional risk-off status. There are no important data releases in the US today, leaving the field open for Federal Open Market Committee members to opine on monetary policy. USDJPY has closely matched intra-day movements in the S&P 500 during this period of volatility and futures are suggesting a modestly higher opening on Wall Street. 

Management and risk description

The dollar’s decline from its 110.10 peak at the start of this month is still a developing 5-wave Elliott Wave sequence (refer daily chart below) and resistance at 106.70/107.00 (107.50 max) should now contain strength, giving-way to a 5th Wave sell-off toward the 104.40 level (being a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the prior 100.85 – 110.10 advance).

Parameters

Entry: Until 105.90 is broken, will try to sell USDJPY around 106.70 today

Stop:
107.06 initially, trailing stop to break-even and better once
105.60 is broken

Target:
50% at 104.90 and 50% at 104.55

Time horizon:
Allow a few days for targets to be met

USDJPY daily chart
(click on chart to expand)
xxx
Source: ThomsonReuters


-- Edited by Adam Courtenay

For more on forex click here

If you would like an email notice each time I post a trade, then click here to follow me.


Disclaimer:
Non-independent investment research
This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Saxo Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. » Read more
5y
perfecto perfecto
This comment has been redacted
5y
Uemit_Zenon Uemit_Zenon
That's the (b) of a (C) if we hold the 103.5 to 105 the next LTT is 115 to 122 until mid-March 2015.

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Tradingfloor.com permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Tradingfloor.com and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Tradingfloor.com is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Tradingfloor.com or as a result of the use of the Tradingfloor.com. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through Tradingfloor.com your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. Tradingfloor.com does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail