Squawk / 09 May 2018 at 0:38 GMT
Global Macro Strategist / Saxo Bank Group - Singapore Hub
Singapore
Trade View Update - Closing off the oil short at $70.19. Overall MTM on the Macro Monday Book is +6.40% YTD vs. c. +1-4% for Global Macro Funds YTD…

Gooooooooood Morning & Happy macro Weds to the Asia Pacific... a good evening/night to the Americas, MEA & Europe...

Yest KVP was speaking to some of you on simple puts & ptu spreads trades... that you could close off into & or post the event...

The moves were big... close to -4% at one point...

Which would have been great returns on the dwnside exposure...

Yet would have been tough to close unless you were on the screens late Asia time...

Two day range on WTI has been 70.84 / 67.63... we are now at $70.19...

Where KVP closes off the short from $67.10... from few wks back... whilst it feels like closing at the highs... so far its been very tough to trade any of the dwnside moves...
09 May
Kay Van-Petersen Kay Van-Petersen
*

Bottom line, 6m of negotiations for a 'Better deal'... so far from immediate in rgds to Iran supply leaving the mkt...

A Reuters piece suggested that Iran while condemning Trumps actions would still honour its agreement with the EU...

Risk though is a harsher response from Teran....

*
A client & very good trader asked me, if I would be short from these lvls today for a tactical pullback & the answer is yes...

There is also a chance that further squeeze higher in oil leading to Gas getting over $3.00... may see Trump threaten to unleash US strategic reserves... even though I think technically the effect is crippled...

Its worth re-highlighting a few things from the Macro Monday Book:

*The Objective of the MM Book is to return +20-30%... under a discretionary Macro Mandate (Cross Asset & Cross Products) & for that we are taking risk...
=>This is not a low risk, low volatility, systematic & position diversified mandate
09 May
Kay Van-Petersen Kay Van-Petersen
*The position sizing & risk taken is view as a portfolio with individual positions either being assigned a stop loss & AUM that is willing to be risked, say 100Bp to other higher conviction portfolio where a NAV % approach is taken. The latter obviously has the element of potential punchier loses on individual trades...
=>So while the oil short which was 1x the $10m capital of MM was cut today at a loss of -4.42% (after initially getting ITM by +2% within 24hrs of being put on – i.e. could argue a lot of trade mismanagement went into this)

=>The 1.4xshort in AUDUSD has a MtM of +8.3% (At one point 2.1x before we hit our first tgt)

=>As of this morning Asia time the MM book is +6.4% for the year... after starting Feb & Mar quite poorly & being stuck in a -100bp to -200bp for a while...
09 May
Kay Van-Petersen Kay Van-Petersen
*Obviously everything from MM & the MM Book are solely views/opinions & not trading advice nor investment recommendation

*The underlying idea behind MM & the MM Book is that research as a whole is commoditized & has zero-value & almost no edge, but trading views, a high level process, passion & lucrative insights will always have value & an edge to anything else out there. Not to mention quite a bit of humility 

Thx,

-KVP
09 May
MM77 MM77
Hi K! Can the MM Book be visualized anywhere besides MM? THX
6d
Kay Van-Petersen Kay Van-Petersen
Not for now - I am trying to push internally to get it put up on SaxoSelect... which would also allow folks to follow & if they want, copy the trades. Happy to put my own capital behind it... Stay Tuned!

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