Today's edition of the Saxo Morning Call features the SaxoStrats team discussing the continuing weakness of the US dollar as commodity prices recover ground and in the wake of key US equity indices hitting all-time highs Thursday.
Squawk / 17 April 2017 at 11:59 GMT
Global Macro Strategist / Saxo Bank Group - Singapore Hub
Trade Update Tactical Book

(From Weekly Macro Monday Cross Asset Call)

Shorting DollarSwissy (short USDCHF)

C. 1.0045 lvls, For 3% risk, very high conviction on this…

Stop at 1.0210,

1st target at 0.9878

2nd target at 0.9828 or adhoc potential place trailing stop at 1st target once we are at 2nd target

Love the fact that is massively lagging the risk-off we’ve seen in the JPY, Gold, Silver, US10s & Bunds…

Can always revisit on Fri, if not already out to see if I want to carry through event or not. Have to think even in positive outcome, Euro takes off... leading to more USD weakness...

In negative outcome, flight to safety on the continent to CHF & GBP...
lee88 lee88
Sorry sir... Stop loss more than profit 1st tgt... N since with conviction.. Y stop so far...
lee88 lee88
Dont u think stop at 1.0100 more sensible n logical?
lee88 lee88
I mean isnt the stp too far?
Madjid Madjid
Nice timing KVP
Kay Van-Petersen Kay Van-Petersen
Trade Update Tactical Book, Closing out half our short DollarSwissy (USDCHF) trade

Closing out half the position at these 0.9986 lvls for a +0.59% profit from our short from 1.0045. This is equivalent to an annualized rate of +37% & if you think that conservative FX lev. Is 25x, its pretty good for a few days’ worth of risk (i.e. +900%)

Do note, I continue to think the skew is to the down side on DollarSwissy, I think it has further to go down. However the caveat from the original trading thesis was to review/soft time stop on Friday

And I could not decide whether to leave it on or close off the whole thing. So decided to bank half the position. Note also I am removing the stop until we get through Mon… as I am comfortable with the size of the position in case of a drawdown
Kay Van-Petersen Kay Van-Petersen
Will also take off profit targets for now


One last note, its interesting to me that Gold has not retraced back to the Trump WSJ interview from Apr 11th… unlike silver. This seems to be a dislocation & if one is looking to play for a positive outcome, gold put spreads makes sense (perhaps 1m out & just look to close them on Mon/Tue)… I think Gold could drop easily $30 from these 1280 lvls & take us back below the key 200D…

Those wanting a more bang for buck trade & very comfortable with a favourable outcome, you want to be short volatility. KVP was just chatting with the epitome of switched macro dude, lets call him DC, & an interesting point was made. I.e. Even if you were long EURUSD puts on Brexit, the volatility post the event droped like a rock… worth keeping in mind for you vol wolves out there (Yes Mr. H-trading… talking about you man! … )

Favorable positioning to you all over the next few sessions…

Vive la France!
alicia33 alicia33
This comment has been redacted


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