Article / 11 August 2014 at 1:11 GMT

Week Ahead: Asia expects positive start as Ukraine standoff eases

Sales Trader / Saxo Bank
Australia
  • Asian markets to take positive lead from Wall Street
  • Aussie earnings season about to heat up
  • Fed speeches will feature over the week

By James Kim

Following a strong performance for the Dow and the S&P 500 on Friday where both indices jumped more than 1 percent, we will look to start the week on a positive note as the Asian session on Friday sold off heavily on anticipation of a weak session to follow as President Barack Obama's authorised air strikes in Iraq. There was some relief as traders witnessed the US stock-index futures turn higher on reports that Russia might to be looking to de-escalate tension over Ukraine.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures added on as much 0.2 percent to 1,927.80 this morning, after the gauge surged on August 8 by the most since March. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average jumped 0.5 percent.

Despite the weakness experienced throughout the week, the US benchmark indices ended the week higher: the Dow ended the week 0.4 percent higher and the S&P 500 added on 0.3 percent for the week.

Friday's session in the US marked the best session in five months for the Dow and S&P 500.
Following a negative six sessions for our local traders here in Australia with the S&P/ASX 200 Index losing 2.2 per cent to 5435.3 points last week, the earnings season will heat up with three of our major banks reporting alongside with gaming names such as Echo Entertainment and Crown Resorts.

It will be the busiest week so far in the earnings season where all eyes will be on revenue growth, guidance and dividends however fund managers are warning the recent breakdown in global security is shaping up as the catalyst that could spoil the bull market.

US retail sales most likely increased in July for a sixth straight month, signaling the economy’s rebound in the second quarter will persist as the job market strengthens, a report in the coming week is expected to show.

Speeches from Fed members include Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer as well as New York Fed President William Dudley. Traders will want to see any hints on the discussion of rate hikes.
In Europe, EUR traders will have their attention fixed on European GDP and German GDP on Thursday as well as inflation figures the same day.

Monday
(All times Australian Eastern Standard Time)

Australia:
- Bendigo and Adelaide Bank and JB Hi-Fi reports

Japan:
- Tertiary Industry Activity m/m (9:50am)
- Bank of Japan Monthly Report and Consumer Confidence (3pm)

US:
- Federal Reserve Bank vice chairman Stanley Fischer due to deliver a speech titled "The Great Recession: Moving Ahead" at the Swedish Finance Ministry conference, in Stockholm (5:15 p.m)
- Earnings: Dean Foods, Priceline, Sysco, Ambac, Caesars Entertainment

Tuesday
Australia:
- NAB Business Confidence and HPI q/q (11:30am)
- Bradken, Dominos Pizza and GPT Group reports

Europe:
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment (7pm)

US:
- NFIB small business survey (9:30pm)
- JOLTs (12am)
- $26 billion 3-year note auction (3am)
- Federal Budget (4am)
Earnings: Bob Evans, Fossil, JDS Uniphase, Valspar, Flowers Foods, Rackspace, Cree

Wednesday
Japan:
- Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and Prelim GDP q/q (9:50am)

Australia:
- Westpac Consumer Sentiment (10:30am)
- Wage Price Index q/q (11:30am)
- Carsales.com, Commonwealth Bank, Computershare, CSL, Echo Entertainment, Goodman Fielder, Primary Health Care, Skilled Group, Suncorp reports

China:
- Industrial Production y/y, Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y & Retail Sales (3:30pm)

Europe:
- GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y, Claimant Count Change & Unemployment Rate (6:30pm)
- EUR Industrial Production m/m (7pm)
- German 10-y Bond Auction (time TBA)
- Bank of England governor Mark Carney speaks: Due to hold a press conference, along with other MPC members, about the Inflation Report, in London (7:30pm)
- BOE Inflation Report (7:30pm)

US:
- Retail sales m/m (10:30pm)
- New York Fed President William Dudley due to deliver opening remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank's conference on the risks of wholesale funding, in New York (11:05pm)
- Business inventories (12am)
- Crude Oil Inventories (12:30am)
- $24 billion 10-year note auction (3am)
Earnings: Deere, Macy's, Cisco, SeaWorld, NetApp, Noodles, Surgical Care Affiliates, Iamgold

Thursday
Japan:
- Core Machinery Orders m/m (9:50am)
Australia:
- MI Inflation Expectations (11am)
- Dexus Property Group, Fairfax Media, Goodman Group, Southern Cross Media, Telstra reports

Europe:
- French Prelim GDP q/q (3:30pm)
- German Prelim GDP q/q (4pm)
- French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q (4:45pm)
- ECB Monthly Bulletin (6pm)
- EUR Final CPI y/y & Flash GDP q/q (7pm)

US:
- Jobless claims (10:30pm)
- Import prices (10:30pm)
- $16 billion 30-year bond auction (3am)
Earnings: Wal-Mart, Nordstrom, JC Penney, Kohl's, Red Robin Gourmet, Advance Auto Parts, Agilent

Friday
Australia:
- ANZ, Crown Resorts, Wesfarmers reports

Europe:
- French and Italian Bank Holiday
- GBP Second Estimate GDP q/q (6:30pm)

US:
- PPI (10:30pm)
- Empire manufacturing survey (10:30pm)
- TIC data (11pm)
- Industrial Production m/m (11:15pm)
Earnings: Estee Lauder

-- Edited by Adam Courtenay

James Kim is a sales trader at Saxo Bank with particular focus on AsiaPac

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