Article / 17 April 2015 at 12:55 GMT

The USD whipsaw is here to stay... for now

Director / Accumen Management
United Kingdom
  • USD selloff unsupported by data
  • GBP, CAD, AUD all head higher
  • US CPI print could provide direction

By Ken Veksler

It seems it’s just plain healthy to take some time away from screens occasionally. Given the sporadic nature of travel and the time it affords you (read: me) to be in front of a machine, with a little pause comes greater objectivity. 

The point of this philosophical rant is simply to say that I remain resolute in my stance on the ongoing consolidation phase of the broader DXY. The moves seen so far this morning and certainly overnight are testament to this very perspective. 

We’ve seen a USD selloff on nothing even remotely new and certainly nothing supported by data. Yet EURUSD is significantly higher, the Cable likewise (despite some mild attribution to slightly better employment data) as is the AUDUSD... even the loonie is looking a sight shinier!

Why though? Why now? Yes, they’re rhetorical questions. You needn’t have the answers, as I’m sure few others do either...
Given the above though, I’m not prepared to fade the USD weakness at the moment, as I believe it may have some legs in it. The USD CPI due shortly will naturally be the standout event today and will present very short-term resolution as to which way the USD will be headed. 

Paddington Bear
Will a soft CPI print bring in the USD bears? Photo: iStock

I’d wager though, that the result is likely to be a softer print and this could just add that little bit more fuel to the USD-sale fire. 

Couple this with the potential for CAD retail sales data to surprise to the upside and all of a sudden you have USDCAD revisiting levels sub the 1.2000 handle. Alright... on that last one, I may just be talking my book a little, but hey, you can’t blame me for trying.

Truthfully I don’t have a great deal more light to shed on what has been a rather mixed week in markets and one which is likely to be the benchmark – as far as price action is concerned, anyway – for the coming month or two.

As such, and especially given that it's Friday, helmets on and good luck out there today.

— Edited by Michael McKenna

Ken Veksler is director of Accumen Management


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail