Kim Cramer Larsson
Areas covered in this webinar by Saxo Bank technical analyst Kim Cramer Larsson include EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, EURGBP, gold, silver, S&P 500, the Nasdaq, the Dax, the FTSE and the Dow Jones.
Squawk / 19 August 2015 at 13:24 GMT
Costa Rica
The price to produce gold, copper and other commodities has gone down something like 30% in commodity countries since the currencies like AUD and CAD have gone down that much. I think it's reasonable to assume the make or break thresholds are changing too.
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In the case of platinum production costs are in South African Rand and whilst capex has been drastically scaled back and loans have been re-written to lower base rates; payrolls have been reduced but you still have fixed costs. Supply still exceeds demand and in the case of Lonrho they have virtually no ability to reduce remaining to reduce costs otherthan mothballing their sites. However as the correctly point out is that most of their debts are not dollar denominated unlike their competitors which is a double whammy...a devaluing home currency but a stronger dollar loan repayment. Also the final product is priced in dollars which is stronger and has a better buying power thus reducing the final sale price. Gold has the severest constraints and existing debt ratios are still extreme.
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apologies for all the typos....the joys of fat fingers on a smart phone and a predictive text facility always causes hassles.
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russia, canada australia produce the commodities in local currency and sell in USD and many cost models have not been updated. As far as oil is concerned all the cost models i've seen turned out unreliable as far as i'm concerned but take just Iron ore and other metals, they are being produced full throttle and maybe the premise about the breaking point or thresholds are very fluid.


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