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Video / 25 July 2016 at 7:11 GMT

Technical analysis of a EURUSD trade: Collins

Alan Collins from takes a look at EURUSD and explains why he is going short into this week and looking to sell any short-term rallies.

Collins has three main reasons:

1. Last week's decline through 1.1000 was the thirrd down week in a row and the fouth in the last five weeks.

2. Although the market stalled close to a 62% correction to the December–May rise, like in June, the mid-point of an increasingly negative Keltner channel has capped rallies.

3. The key 13-day moving average has also been capping rallies ever since the post-Brexit vote drove EURUSD to a June 4 month low.

The decline is gradual rather than explosive, and Collins expects that scenario to continue. 

Profit-taking rallies are likely to find sellers near the 13-day moving average, currently 1.1049.

On the downside, the target is June’s 1.0910 low, then 1.0825, which is February’s bottom or even 1.0782 a broader 76% correction point.

Only a rate above 1.1168 would prove this view incorrect and show that sentiment has turned positive.
assi assi
Morning Alan, still same level for entry to short...? please update. Thanks
AlanCollins AlanCollins
yes - today's sentiment is a little more positive but that is expected to be temporary.
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