Medium term
/
Buy
Trade view / 05 June 2017 at 6:58 GMT

Taking a long GBPUSD on bullish flag

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom
Instrument: GBPUSD
Price target: 1.3500
Market price: 1.2875
Background

I have taken a GBPUSD long this morning. I like this both from a technical and a fundamental standpoint. I have long been an advocate for a Conservative election victory on June 8, and think that prime minister Theresa May’s harder stance on terrorism in her Sunday speech will bolster her flagging ratings in the polls and give GBP a boost it needs. Technical outlook below. 

Weekly – As far as Elliott wave is concerned, we regard the bearish fifth wave to now be complete. We are now in the corrective formation higher. 
GBPUSD W
Source: Saxo Bank 

Daily – Moving higher in a corrective channel formation. We have seen a retest of 1.2773, which was resistance from December 6, now becomes support. An AB=CD formation would take the pair to 1.3250. However, with bespoke resistance not seen until 1.3536 and the 161.8% extension level (from 1.1495-1.2773) seen at 1.3557, this is our favoured long-term target area. 
GBPUSD D
Source: Saxo Bank

Intraday (120 minutes) – We have seen two ‘inside solders’ posted on the daily chart (indecision). However, the intraday chart looks to be forming a bullish flag or pennant formation. Although a break of 1.2905 is needed to confirm the intraday formation, with a Demark 13 (exhaustion) posted from the low and a gap still left open overnight (gaps have a tendency to get closed), I am happy to be long at current levels. 
GBPUSD 2
 Source: Saxo Bank

Management and risk description

Parameters

Entry: Long GBPUSD at 1.2870

Stop: 1.2810 (below the flag support)

Target: intraday (flag breakout target 1.2980), medium-term 1.3500



— Edited by John Acher

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
A compiled overview of Trade Views provided on TradingFloor.com is found here
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
also expressing caution in EURGBP... bearish divergence and a possible Ending Wedge
2y
AlexF AlexF
Morning Ian, Im in 1.2870 as well, got same signal from saxo select who took long at 1.2870 GL. How important is PMI at 10;30 for this position ?
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
morning Alex ... I think it will be ignored .... too much emphasis on Thursday I think
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
https://www.marketnews.com/content/phil-feds-harker-may-payrolls-138k-good-number

Phil Fed's Harker: May Payrolls at 138K 'A Good Number'

@Ian Coleman, u may wan to read this. I hv a feeling that june fomc meeting may be hawkish than what market expects. The fed is determined to raise rates until 1.5% in sept and then balance sheet trim down in dec.
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Thanks Fashionapolis. I have expressed caution this morning on the USD.. we could consolidate for sometime when/if we reach 96.36 ... it is more a GBP play
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
ya. Understand for GBP play, is the May election. I hope May wins as I think she will make a great leader in leading Brexit.

for USD, i think it is market expectation vs Fed expectation. eventually, the market expectation has to align to what Fed expects. Also, i think it is yellen's last yr so this yr i think they really want 3 hikes but the market right now just doesn't believe fed will hike.
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
what target do Saxo Select put on GBPUSD Alex ?
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
nice 'pop' through the trend line resistance
2y
AlexF AlexF
Ian saxo select does not put target it just takes a position for me and close whenever he decides (maybe it is a she...), Fxtime also was long : ) from 1.2755 but he is out, he mentionned naother 40 pips to go but he is out...
2y
AlexF AlexF
sorry 1.2855 he entered and go out now, my saxo select entered at 1.2870 like u
2y
AlexF AlexF
I double down on him at 1.287 still in
2y
AlexF AlexF
do u use trailing stop ? if so what ROC would u use on GBPUSD to define the trrailing ?
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
thanks Alex ... no I use DeMark for corrections and exhaustion... just going to 'try' and bleed this one
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
according to my system we should rally into Thursday (or I get stopped out flat)
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
pullback (correction) at 2pm (UK) ..... but it should, only be a correction. Probably off the last swing high
2y
AlexF AlexF
Ok so ull place SL at entry then and let it run
2y
AlexF AlexF
On EURUSD it sits now at 1.1240 support, I read two camps one going down to 1.1204 and further another to 1.131 and then short. Where are u on it ?
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I have support at 1.1242... think limited selling
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
EURJPY is near an exhaustion count but no signal
2y
Anton Bushin Anton Bushin
Hi Ian, what do you think about EURAUD?
2y
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
Im here just very busy GM/Ian
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
if we can close the day below 1.5000 the I think we move to 1.4600 in a correction
2y
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
looking for more consolidation on the USDJPY 110.0 would be nice
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I think you will get it ... I am looking for signals to get long close to 109.90
2y
Anton Bushin Anton Bushin
Ian, thank you!
2y
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
just shout if you see a signal
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
lol... will do .. think we will snooze now
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
taken some profit in GBPUSD... looking for a correction lower to buy into ... I am still a GBP bull
2y
Andrew Perkins Andrew Perkins
woke up in profit , thats a first closed my USDJPY both units ,small scalp on NZDUSD this morning , just waiting for a signal to enter the market
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
lovely ... nice short USDJPY ... well done
2y
David12 David12
Hello Ian, any new signal on this article ?
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
1.2892 support today
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
so ian am i right to say that UK election result will probably be out on Friday?
2y
David12 David12
@ Ian: now is on 1.2873
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
they are more zones then exact levels
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
GBPUSD is consolidating. hopefully staying above 1.29 will lead to a breakout later to 1.297-1.3 range.
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
ian, i dun stay in UK but how is the election gg. Is May still maintaining a strong lead n will get the 326 majority leads? i read that her party is still short of at least 20+ seats. But overall she is still leading n likely to form the govt.
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
ian still bullish on GU?
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
yes ... but it is high risk...... with the USD where it is I prefer EURGBP short
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
GBPUSD needs a daily close above 1.2889 ... I can see that being pivotal today
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
it came up to 1.302 for a while but came down fast... ...RSI for both H1 and H4 is still above 50. But the momentum to push higher is a bit disappointing..
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
is there any event on the last day be4 polling that may trigger GBP up?
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
nothing really ... would have to be a shock event I think
2y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
1.2889 holding so still bullish
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
hmm... but need the movement... :(
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
so ian, u holding GBPUSD throughout the election.? EURGBP is a bit risky trade to hold through ECB conference
2y
Fashionapolis Fashionapolis
jus exit all gu w a small profit.

@ian, tmr tokyo time will hv JPY GDP. i believe that may be the final data to trigger UJ final sell off. UJ may break 109 n test the 108.6 low. so i am thinking of longing uj at late london time if i see all the selling done. Plan to hold it for the next week entirely into fomc. The fact gold cant break 1300 easily tells me that usd will soon be back to bullish. At 1.25% usd yield is certainly attractive. I think the remaining jpy data is less impt as the GDP tmr.

just sharing my thoughts :)

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