Medium term
Trade view / 13 June 2016 at 2:15 GMT

EURCHF reversal now completed

Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
New Zealand

The Swiss National Bank issues its quarterly monetary policy statement on Thursday, followed by a press conference from Bank President Thomas Jordan. His comments will be closely watched, as the Swiss franc has been appreciating lately. The SNB’s official line for some time has been that the exchange rate is “significantly overvalued”.

Yet more intervention may be needed to even hold the current level of EURCHF as the German bund curve continues to drift lower, leaving the 10-year maturity sitting just above zero. The SNB has been holding Swiss 3 month Libor close to -0.75%, for some time but its target range is –0.25% to –1.25%, so there is room to lower it further. They may have to do this if the Fed issues a dovish statement of its own on Wednesday, pushing the dollar down and putting more unwanted upward pressure on CHF.

Management and risk description

The dominant chart structure in EURCHF is a completed seven-month Head and Shoulders reversal formation (see daily chart) where whilst neckline resistance (currently situated around the 1.0900 level) now contains. There is downside projection toward 1.0500 over the coming weeks.


Entry: Opportunity to Sell around the 1.0860 level today

1.0913, initially. 

Target: 1.0545.

Time horizon: allow sufficient time for target to be met

EURCHF daily chart (click to expand)
EURCHF daily chart
Source: ThomsonReuters 

EURCHF weekly chart (click to expand)
EURCHF Weekly chart

 Source: ThomsonReuters. Create your own charts with SaxoTrader; click here to learn more. 

For more on forex, click here.

— Edited by Robert Ryan

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail