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The Fed leaves rates unchanged and says stimulus wind down will begin relatively soon. And according to Saxo Bank's senior sales trader Christoffer Moltke-Leth, this is because the Fed is struggling with an inconsistent labour market and low inflation. The Fed still foresees one more rate hike this year and three hikes next year, but the market does not agree, says Moltke-Leth. "The market expects the Fed to be even more dovish."
Squawk / 24 May 2016 at 17:44 GMT
Hypothesis Testing
United Kingdom
Sugar market is looking fun these days for you LOL. Wild times it seems.
1y
fxtime fxtime
Forgot to say...you tracking SP500 trading ranges from prior day close to current values? It seems that +21 or greater gives a mean reversion averaging at 11pts on average within 4 subsequent days ! Just look at the daily chart and see what I mean.
1y
fxtime fxtime
One touch options near dated look interesting for this or selling an OTM CALL to open to max premium returns and lower margins and enhanced b/e but volatility is low (grrrr) for this strategy and risk isn't shall we say defined! :-/
1y
fxtime fxtime
Mean reversion long or short strategy for the last 12mths is 78.6% on SP500 so one touch option seems best using near dated weeklies with 4 days before expiry minimum using prior day close to following day close requiring 21+pts spread :-)
1y
fxtime fxtime
Interesting on the dailies ftse cash charting that we seem to be on the right hand shoulder for a H+S pattern. To be honest I think the day of H+S patterns are long gone......but certainly worth watching what the general marketplace does now....it should at least stall. Today fwiw I have started my first swingshort on the ftse cash mkt at the price mentioned on an earlier comment of yours. As I suspect oil to drop and precious metals and ores then the ftse is a prime candidate to track downwards for obvious reasons.
1y
Neil D Neil D
yeah looking to get back in, as my sources are saying its likely to reach 20c by year end! Problem is like all the commodity markets, the specs are very long right now, so you have to roll with the volatility..........may mean we could get big setback if they unload
1y
Neil D Neil D
On the subject of H&S...........in my view its never been a notably reliable trading tool, so I don't look for them unless they are major top/bottom changers. using them mid trend or in ranges is pointless generally
1y
Neil D Neil D
What are you basing the SP swing short on? Quite an impulsive move today...........
1y
Neil D Neil D
sorry just read that its a FTSE trade.........duh!
1y
trading4fun trading4fun
selling small positions above 2065 step by step into steep rally, hourly chart produces sell signal, at least on cash index
1y
fxtime fxtime
Yeah tend to agree about the worth of the H+S as suggested above. As for SP...agree an impulsive move without doubt. FWIW though I have opened a mean reversion trade as described above as the close was in excess of +21 from the prior close and these events often result in a reversion....fun times :-)
As for sugar ...high risk imho due to the very reasons you describe.
1y
trading4fun trading4fun
the two bullish daily candles may indicate recent highs attempt, considering RSI, thus buy on dips in the cards
1y
trading4fun trading4fun
@fxtime, i like the way you approach sp500 beast ;)
1y
fxtime fxtime
I can see where you are coming from trading4fun....my trade is pure stats based and we can both be right...depends on our timescales. There should be some momentum remaining ....an old link on this issue but I do not see it having any staying power.
https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/trading-a-missed-move-7206136
1y
fxtime fxtime
thx mate...lets hope we both earn :-)
1y
marcovitz marcovitz
fxtime, do you have any data about SP gap up fill?
1y
fxtime fxtime
Yeah but it comes in two parts...some rising gaps are impulsive moves such as this morning where we witness the remnant of yesterdays large move and should thus fill within 48hrs. I will post an article on rising gaps later though....todays one is bringing the last two together as an overlayed strategy and the next will be skew but I will post some mini headers on rising gaps as quite a few have asked about them. I'll let you know when they are done.
1y
marcovitz marcovitz
thx fxtime! your findings are truly outstanding!

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