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Squawk / 12 July 2016 at 12:25 GMT
Hypothesis Testing
United Kingdom
Sorry mate the trade strategy failed today....my system stop triggered and turned the trade so loss was -27 and only +5 made on the turn :-(
Never good for a strategy to fail.
If the market rallies back through the trigger level I will re-enter the original trade fwiw.
12 July
fxtime fxtime
Just returned to my desk and see the original trade triggered again and made the minimum +5 so overall I am down 17pips on this set up for the day....if we reach 1.3059 today I will re-enter a long and run to the close fwiw.
12 July
marran marran
my stop loss triggered as well, but you cant win every trade! i didnt re enter the trade. tomorrow is another day!!
12 July
fxtime fxtime
Sorry mate and thanks. As you say tomorrow is another day...bring it on :-)
13 July
fxtime fxtime
update....usdcad did indeed retrace and my order for 1.3059 was triggered long as mentioned above. Trade halved for +10....I will keep hitting this market as never like losses LOL..stop on b/e for remainder..
13 July
marran marran
do you know when the best time (UK) to trade the audusd with this system woud be?
13 July
fxtime fxtime
Actually I haven't back tested the audusd but will have a look !
Normally I watch cable/eurusd/usdcad/usdjpy/usdchf and obviously the programme orders like the eur/gbp or krone so let me have look at that pairing and differing time frames and I will get back to you.
13 July
fxtime fxtime
Actually the audusd shows three high probability stampings but the easiest for us in the UK is the 9am - 10am again !!
Obviously we have the 1am -2am BST too and I will test the late afternoon one as all three give very similar probabilities but I need to test the data first before committing these trades. What is of interest however is the usual price fixing point we use for the Loon has an effect on audusd (11am - 12noon BST) but the probability is 0.1% lower....again this hasn't been back tested properly its what lawyers call ''prima facie'' eg on face value the initial data is good.
13 July
marran marran
it sounds like its worth giving it a live test will try it tomorrow
13 July
fxtime fxtime
I am watching the current move against the 11am -12noon range...only paper trading though.
13 July
fxtime fxtime
Marran hope you got the Loon again ? :-)
Watch 3pm BST on the usdcad as the base rate announcement which usually gives a bit of momentum.
13 July
marran marran
yes my friend i did get the loon again! excellent are you trading the opening of the 3pm bar?
13 July
fxtime fxtime
yeah well traded.....at 3pm I will trade the break of the 2:30 - 3:00pm BST trading range. Got a meeting now so best of luck trading :-)
13 July
fxtime fxtime
Update.... the market broke the half hour range at 1.3048 for my order to trigger. Due to the speed of move I have now moved the stop to 1.30000
13 July
fxtime fxtime
LOL....I couldn't set the screengrab and edit fast enough LOL...my trailed stop has been hit for +48
Watch it plummet now without me :-)
Still you had the trade plan over an hour ago so hopefully you made from it too?
13 July
fxtime fxtime
Yep such is Murphys' Law....gravity hits the Loon and sadly I am flat LOL.
13 July
marran marran
both the 3pm trades triggered and closed at a profit!! nice one
13 July
fxtime fxtime
Good man :-)

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