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Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Ian Coleman of First4Trading.net explains in a technical analysis of charts why he is trading USDCAD.
Squawk / 15 June 2016 at 14:36 GMT
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United States
Short USDCAD at 1.2899.
1y
Andrei14 Andrei14
ок
1y
Albee Albee
Hi dab any target?
1y
John Roberti John Roberti
oil went over one per cent on the EIA release and the dollar went slightly down and still, for the last two hours, the usdcad went up and up with only a slight drop at the time of EIA release. Thus since the time of the Canadian release (12H30 GMT), despite positive figures for cad, it went up! Thus somebody must know something that escape us. If anybody has an idea? I must say the longer term, the cad must go down because the second quarter figures will show -1/4% GDP and serious drop in employment as a result of the Alberta fires! But it does not explain today's figures
1y
Dan Murray Dan Murray
With CAD largely ignoring the jump in oil, with no real follow-through in oil, and given that the FOMC is on the horizon, I closed at 1.2918.
1y
Dan Murray Dan Murray
Hi John. Keep in mind that while CAD has weakened, it hasn't moved very much since the oil inventory release. While I also expected CAD to correlate more with oil today, the fact that it hasn't isn't a huge surprise. The correlation breaks down regularly, and there are many possible reasons. I don't see any reason to think that someone knows something that we don't.

Importantly, positioning (especially the unwinding of positions) along with lower liquidity before a major event (such as the FOMC in two hours) can cause what may appear to be erratic movements.
1y
John Roberti John Roberti
As you see oil has already lost 2/3 of the jump (was over 1 dollar)! I agree with you that positioning could be a partial explanation but then why this jump from 1,2860 till now 1,2935 that started just on the Canadian data release at 12H30 GMT. If it positioning then what could cad expect from FOMC when everybody expect no decision today but a may be for July or September! It sounds pretty much as a no event...? Could cad be influenced by brexit fears?
1y
Dan Murray Dan Murray
There are many possibilities. I think you may be reading into these movements a little too much. The movements do seem a bit weird, but it's not evidence that someone is acting on something fundamental that we aren't seeing. I mean, we see movements like this every week that can't be explained by anything other than flows/positioning.

But anyways, time to get ready for the FOMC. Can't wait!

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