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Short-term oil upside possible but watch out — #SaxoStrats

Ole Hansen
There could be further upside in crude oil in the short term, says Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. 

Oil markets broke higher after Russia agreed to freeze or cut production. Hansen believes, however, that there will ultimately be questions about how the plan will roll out. 

There will be a Opec meeting November 30 where details about the deal will be outlaid.  
John Roberti John Roberti
dear Ole, assuming that the agreement, what ever it is, is coming into play on January 15 2017 as defined by Saudi's, we would have an extra glut of 700.0000 BPD x 75 days that is an extra glut of 52.5 million barrels and if either Iran or Iraq or Nigeria or Libya or Russia adds up to this production as of august, then the extra glut added could come to easy 70 million barrels! Could this justify an increase in price? Could you tell me if these numbers
are correct
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
@John. There are too many moving parts to say whether those numbers will end up being correct. Saudi Arabia the main contributor to a cut is probably already now seeing production taper off as domestic demand slows. The current price rally has got more to do with momentum and technical signals as the negotiations about who does what and by how much has yet to begin.
The profit taking seen so far today has been triggered by the stronger dollar but we are yet to challenge any significant support levels. An update will be available on Tradingfloor shortly.
John Roberti John Roberti
thanks! it is true that there are a lot of variables into play...
Karen Holander Karen Holander
This comment has been redacted


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