Short term
Trade view / 21 July 2016 at 23:29 GMT

Short-term recovery anticipated for AUDUSD

Managing Director / Technical Research Limited
New Zealand
Instrument: AUDUSD
Price target:
Market price:

Next Wednesday’s CPI number will be the decider for AUDUSD. Analysts are expecting a quarterly number of 0.4%–0.5% which would see the annual rate dropping to 1.1%, well under the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target of 2-3%. 

As such, a 25 basis point rate cut to 1.5% at the bank’s next policy review on August 2 looks to be a strong possibility. However, that’s already priced in and the CPI number would have to lowball the expectation to see AUDUSD sell off much more from here. More on the RBA’s predicament here: RBA may move goalposts on inflation target.
On the other side of the cross, the probability of a rate rise by the US Federal Reserve by year-end continues to creep up: now a bit above 50:50.

Management and risk description

From an Elliott Wave and classical charting perspectives, the Ozzy has good short-term recovery potential (see my hourly and daily charts below) and while holding 0.7480/0.7450 support, looking for rally back toward the 0.7560 – 0.7600 area.


Entry: buying Ozzie at market 0.7493.

Stop: 0.7448 until 0.7515 resistance is cleared.

Target: 0.7568.
Time horizon: today, a day or two for target to be met.    

AUDUSD hourly chart (click to expand)
Source: ThomsonReuters  

AUDUSD daily chart (click to expand)
Source: ThomsonReuters  

AUDUSD weekly chart (click to expand)

Source: ThomsonReuters. Create your own charts with SaxoTrader; click here to learn more 

– Edited by Gayle Bryant

For more on forex click here

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
brian1983 brian1983
u sure aud will hv a rebound? the direction seems unclear.
brian1983 brian1983
now already 0.748
brian1983 brian1983
ya. if 0.747-8 holds rebound may be possible.
Max McKegg Max McKegg
only death and taxes are Certain Brian !
brian1983 brian1983
Patto Patto
Came perilously close to being stopped out but just hung in there. No luck on this trade Max but I like the way you have tight stops. It suggests you have good money management skills.


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer
- 沪ICP备13028953号-1

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail