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Day trade
Trade view / 30 September 2016 at 7:31 GMT

Selling into rallies in EURGBP

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom
Background

Still short AUD through AUDUSD, AUDJPY, and GBPAUD and letting those trades play out (hopefully)...  

One interesting setup this morning is EURGBP. We are possibly making a topping formation that offers great risk/reward if the pattern breaks to the downside. 

Monthly: Broken out of the corrective channel formation to the upside. However, we have stalled close to a previous area of resistance dating back to 2013. August posted a Doji style candle from the high. Reverse trendline support is seen at 0.8075 and we would not expect any correction to break this level. 

EURGBP M
Source: Saxo Bank 

Weekly: Completed a bullish five-wave pattern (Elliott Wave) while positing an Evening Star formation from the high (0.8723). This week’s price action could possibly form another Doji top.

EURGBP W
Source: Saxo Bank
 
Daily: We are looking for a possible bearish Head and Shoulders to form. This timeframe does not highlight any real confirmation as yet. 

EURGBP D
Source: Saxo Bank 

Intraday (one hour): Probably the most important timeframe for this outlook. We have seen a corrective recovery from the 0.8589 lows. Although we have stalled at the 61.8% pullback level of 0.8666, there is no clear indication that the move higher is over. 

The four-hour chart will post a Demark correction nine before the afternoon session (15:00 GMT) if further gains are posted. This, coupled with the fact that we have a trend line resistance at 0.8687 and the 78.6% pullback level lining up at the same level, we prefer to sell into gains today.  

EURGBP 1






Source: Saxo Bank

Bespoke support lines up with trendline support at 0.8604 and should be a substantial barrier on the downside. 

Measured move: The target for the breakout is at 0.8460:
EURGBP 2

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Source: Saxo Bank

Management and risk description

A move through 0.8604 and we place stop at entry (or double up).

Parameters

Entry: selling close to 0.8685.

Stop: 0.8715.

Target: 0.8460.

Time horizon: two to four sessions.

— Edited by Michael McKenna

For more on forex click here.

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
30 September
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Got short at 0.8646
30 September
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
about to break neckline support at 0.8604... will be moving stop to entry very soon
30 September
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Taken two AUD positions off now ... playing GBP strength ... GBPAUD long and EURGBP short
30 September
asousa27 asousa27
Hello Ian, you closed AUDUSD?
30 September
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Yes .. happy to bank that one... just a little wary that the first 5 wave formation may now been complete... will be selling again. Still short AUD through GBPAUD
30 September
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
IF she bounces I am looking to sell at 0.7648
30 September
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
EURGBP I am doubling up through 0.8600
30 September
AlexF AlexF
Got out of EURJPY following you here, DBK moving up with futures in the US
30 September
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
OK good luck Alex ...
30 September
assi assi
Hi Ian, Do you have any though about USDCHF..? Im looking to go long
30 September
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Good call ... think it could be overstretched at the moment. 9710 I have as support... I like GBPCHF long too
30 September
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
GBPCHF is close to -1 correlated to EURGBP
30 September
assi assi
thank you...
30 September
assi assi
do you think that possible to get .9710...?
30 September
asousa27 asousa27
Thanks Ian. I'm already GBPCHF long!
30 September
AlexF AlexF
looks maybe turning to risk on
30 September
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
yes .. I think 0.9710 is possible
30 September
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Well done asousa27
30 September
asousa27 asousa27
Was because your eurgbp view and gbp strength so I have to thank you
30 September
assi assi
what is your thoughts about USDCAD and is the chart mean some thing for you, im short from 1.3242...thanks Ian for your support
30 September
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
to be honest .. I don't have great signals in this pair ....I think the immediate bias is down but I am not sure how far
30 September
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
if feels impossible to stay on a trend these days
30 September
assi assi
You are right
30 September
assi assi
im long as you suuggest to go long USDCHF, where do you the stop should be for med. term
30 September
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
I wouldn't want to see a daily close under 0.9680
30 September
AlexF AlexF
Hi ian the only good trade was to pick up DBK at 10.19 : ) what would be SL on GBPCHF and EURGBP now for today ?
30 September
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
got a Fib at 0.8662 .... GBPCHF 1.2550
30 September
AlexF AlexF
Thanks GL
30 September
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Night all ... gone from 3% up to 1% today ..... tough markets ... enjoy your weekend
30 September
assi assi
you too......thanks

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