Trade view /
27 October 2016 at 7:44 GMT
USD Index – Daily chart highlights spikes in both direction (indecision) as we hold close to the 99.00 level. We have US durable goods this afternoon so could see some directional bias in the US dollar. The medium-term outlook remains firmly bullish so we only look to buy into dips (or breaks).
Source: Saxo Bank
I have just updated the charts on the AUDUSD and USDCAD trade view. We could see some mild USD corrections from wedge support (AUDUSD) and the 161.8% extension at 1.3411 (USDCAD).
Going to look at EURUSD and the prime level to sell into rallies.
Monthly – We have had a long and hard eighteen months of consolidation. The bias is still bearish with May posting an Outside Month. Long-term target is on parity (1.0000 – Fibonacci confluence area) and 0.9490 (channel base).
Weekly – Holds within a triangle formation that has a bias to break lower. Nothing to indicate the selloff is coming to an end.
Daily – For the last four day’s spikes can be seen in both directions we are assessed to be in the 5th wave lower (Elliott Wave). This can be the hardest of the waves to predict.
Intraday (one hour) – Rejected gains close to the 50% pullback level of 1.0946. However, with other USD pairs (AUDUSD and USDCAD) highlighting scope for a dollar correction, there is scope for buying this morning. We have bespoke resistance at 1.0948-62 and this is our zone to get short. With a stop above 1.0990, this offer a good medium-term bear play.
Management and risk description
selling at the 1.0948-62 zone
1.0826 (1-2 sessions) 1.0660 (2-3 weeks)
— Edited by Clare MacCarthy
Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more