Short term
Trade view / 07 September 2016 at 12:36 GMT

#SaxoStrats. UPDATE: WTI rally extension called into doubt

Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
Saxo Strats banner
After crude oil prices jumped on Monday, we introduced a trade idea on Tuesday to buy WTI on dips, but the retracement has gone deeper than hoped for, which weakens the basis for an extended rebound.

The dip in the market yesterday extended beyond the 61.8% retracement at $44.35/barrel that we were looking for. Instead the market only bounced — and this time helped by a weaker US dollar — after touching $43.84/b which was the 76.4% retracement.

Retracing so deeply before bouncing does not create the strongest foundation for the rally to extend. On the other hand, the market may be losing its appetite for selling considering the ongoing barrage of comments from various oil producers. Yesterday, the selling in the market picked up once US traders stepped in, and today we are seeing a repeat of that behaviour. 

Traders may opt to raise the stop (initially set at $42.90/b) to entry ($44.40/b) and wait for a better entry level.

— Edited by John Acher

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
07 September
Pandorra Pandorra
Many thanks Ole for continuous support.
Looks like weaken dollar is our best friend on this bullish way, with some lagging.
07 September
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
Indeed... the market will be nervous ahead of the weekly inventory report from API tonight followed by the EIA tomorrow.
07 September
Michael Liu Michael Liu
going high, just missed it
08 September
ajith ajith
Dear Ole what is ur target for WTI? my target 46.40 to 50
08 September
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
That is my first target area as well. If you click on the link above you can see the original parameters
08 September
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
Update to be published shortly: CLV6 has returned to the near the high from Monday and at the time of writing this the peak today has been $46.49 just one tick short of our first take profit level at $46.50. Let us go to market on this limit order and maintain the second target at $47.80 while raising the stop to $44.50, just below yesterday’s low.


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail