Short term
Trade view / 09 September 2016 at 8:41 GMT

#SaxoStrats. UPDATE 3: Closing WTI long position

Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
Denmark
Price target:
Market price:
strats
 
This is the third and final update of our WTI long trade view published on Tuesday

Crude oil hit $47.75 yesterday following the huge inventory draw from the EIA. This was just 5 ticks short of our target at $47.80, and given that crude oil is drifting lower today we opt to close the remaining position (last at $47). 

Sellers have emerged as questions are being asked as to how bullish the out-of-kilter inventory report yesterday actually was. We expect a large upwards revision next week and as we are getting close to levels were we would consider entering a fresh short position we see no reason to maintain the position. 

— Edited by Clare MacCarthy

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
1y
Pandorra Pandorra
Ole, Why do you teach us to be so hurried.. Rig count by Baker Hughes hasn't published yet.
So I'd like to ask why this count is not in the Calendar of events here?
1y
Waheed786 Waheed786
$48.15 then $48.70
1y
Armando_c Armando_c
@Pandorra Ole, like most other people this days is trading in expectations, "We expect a large upwards revision next week' , also clearly seen yesterday, under 5% movement on a 15 Million barrel draw down, yet when the Saudis repeat the same rubbish, the oil jumps at least 7-10%... Clearly people in this market in particular don't really like facts just rumors and expectations.
1y
Pandorra Pandorra
@Armando_c yep, I'm absolutely agree with you. But the rule 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' nobody changed. One obvious point implied in the rule is that the rumor should be bullish: if it is bullish only then you stand a better chance to win – to earn 'more' then reasonable levels.
So why limit yourself, as current week hasn't closed yet, and we have one trigger more?
1y
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
In my view the rig count will be close to irrelevant considering the attention the inventory report received. When the market shoots higher on news like that the risk of a counter move rise and on that basis i think the upside potential has been sharply reduced once again. To re-enter on the long side i would either look for a retracement towards $44.20 or a break above $49 (which could signal a move to $52.50.
1y
Waheed786 Waheed786
Tx Ole makes good sense
1y
Pandorra Pandorra
exactly.. Mr. Rosengren, North Korea and @Ole made this Friday. excellent sence, thanks! Seems not so many days left to fill the tank, before this boat hasn't finally cranked to the 'Bearish dip'.
What about clx6 for further views? Many thanks once again.
1y
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
Thank you Pandorra. Today the focused switch dramatically to stocks and bonds as the complacency suddenly got punished. Making for a very interesting week next week. Before then enjoy your weekend all.
1y
Pandorra Pandorra
OMG.. I cant imagine 'bears howl' but all this week we spent with +25% clear Short build. looks like initial bets were to 40 and below. Have a nice weekend too. awesome sense
1y
James Benjamin James Benjamin
Great advice and perspective Ole. Many thanks for sharing your expertise and timely calls. A wonderful asset for Saxo, imo. Thanks again.
1y
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
Thank you James

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