John J Hardy
Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy John Hardy takes a closer look at trends and moves in today’s forex charts, including EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, and EURSEK.
Strategic trade
Trade view / 03 November 2015 at 9:25 GMT

#SaxoStrats: NZDCAD could tumble on jobs data

Head of FX Strategy / Saxo Bank
Instrument: NZDCAD
Price target:
Market price:



The New Zealand dollar has been overachieving lately in general and especially relative to its commodity dollar peers, while relative interest rate developments haven’t been particularly supportive of the kiwi. 

With the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand eventually looking to cut rates, the latter has far more room to ease and a renewed negative focus on the RBNZ in the wake of tonight’s employment report after recent very low NZ inflation data leaves considerable room for NZD downside. 

This could particularly be the case versus the Canadian dollar if US data this week are strong, though this trade view looks to avoid direct exposure to the USD volatility over data releases.

Management and risk description

A particularly strong Q3 employment report out of New Zealand tonight risks a quick stop out of this trade. 

NZDCAD daily chart:

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Source: Saxo Bank 

NZDCAD weekly chart:
Source: Saxo Bank  


Entry: 0.8780-0.8820.

Stop: 0.8960.

Target: 0.8520, 0.8380.

Time horizon: up to a month.

— Edited by Michael McKenna

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Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more


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