Video

#SaxoStrats
Today's edition of the Saxo Morning Call features the SaxoStrats team discussing the continuing weakness of the US dollar as commodity prices recover ground and in the wake of key US equity indices hitting all-time highs Thursday.
Strategic trade
Trade view / 03 November 2015 at 8:57 GMT

#SaxoStrats: Investors overreacting to PostNL news

Head of Equity Strategy / Saxo Bank
Denmark
Instrument: PNL:xams
Price target:
Market price:
Background

PostNL shares are down 15% as the company signals volume headwinds in Dutch market and only gradual improvements in operating cash generation towards 2020. 

Management is cutting guidance for the 2016 fiscal year.

Our equity model, however, is very bullish on PostNL and it is among our global alpha picks in the transportation industry group driven by the lowest valuation (EV/EBITDA 3.3x) in more than 15 years.

Today’s price reaction is an overreaction and the sharp declines feel like a liquidation wave from institutional firms. Our view is that the share price will move back into line with fundamentals over time.

Management and risk description

Key risks include institutional selling and a weak European macro climate.

PostNL weekly share price since 2010:
PostNL

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Source: Saxo Bank 

Parameters

Entry: buy PNL:xams at market,

Stop: trailing stop price €2.54 and steps of €0.06 .

— Edited by Michael McKenna

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Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more

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