Strategic trade
Trade view / 23 August 2016 at 11:43 GMT

#SaxoStrats: Gold miners ETF to tumble as US outperforms

Head of Equity Strategy / Saxo Bank
Instrument: GDX:arcx
Price target:
Market price:
Our new macro theme published by Saxo Bank chief economist Steen Jakobsen predicts a stronger USD as the Federal Reserve is moving closer to hiking rates; most inflation metrics followed by the Fed are either close to 2% or slightly above. 

The US labour market is also close to full employment, so further inflationary pressures should be on the horizon. 

In addition, employment growth looks robust and the US stock market is close to all-time highs. If this theme plays out as we think it will, it spells short-term opportunities on the short side in gold miners.

As a result we are initiating a short position in gold miners through the most liquid ETF – VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX:arcx).


Create your own charts with SaxoTraderGO click here to learn more

Source: Saxo Bank 

Gold has gained strength this year as investors sought protection against correlated assets but also as the ultimate safe-haven against what looks like extended valuation across many different asset classes. 

But a strong underlying force among investors is the hunt for yields, which could again hurt gold as the asset has a negative carry dragging down portfolios with already low indicated yields.


Entry: sell at market.

Stop: $31.50.

Target: $25.

— Edited by Michael McKenna

For more on equities and ETFs, click here.

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
Feders Feders
Hello Peter, what is the time horizon for this trade view? Thanks!
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
Option interest on GLD, the world's largest gold ETF almost entirely focusing on calls. During the past five days 9 out of the 10 most traded options strikes were calls. Either a good reverse indicator or another sign how strong the underlying sentiment is.
Market Predator Market Predator
@Mr. Ole Hansen: does Your squawk mean, to be short gold miners might be premature?
Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
@Market Predator: NO is the short answer. This from latest gold update: The options market, seen through the lens of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the world's largest gold ETF, sways heavily towards the bull camp. During the past week nine out of the ten most traded options strikes on GLD were calls. This could be a reflection of the current stalemate and rising correction risk in the market. Investors are therefore using options to have the exposure should it pop higher while at the same time maintaining the opportunity of picking up the ETF cheaper following a correction.
Market Predator Market Predator
@Ole Hansen: thanks for Your explanation, it's more clear now for me. Kind regards, MP.


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on or as a result of the use of the Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. When trading through your contracting Saxo Bank Group entity will be the counterparty to any trading entered into by you. does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of ourtrading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws. Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Invetment Research
- Full disclaimer
- 沪ICP备13028953号-1

Check your inbox for a mail from us to fully activate your profile. No mail? Have us re-send your verification mail