Ole Hansen
Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen considers the implications of pledges by Saudi Arabia and Russia to raise oil production despite the likes of Iran and Venezuela not backing the move.
Strategic trade
Trade view / 31 May 2016 at 7:06 GMT

#SaxoStrats: GBPJPY could be set for climb higher

Global Macro Strategist / Saxo Bank Group - Singapore Hub
Instrument: GBPJPY
Price target:
Market price:

t Background

This is a structural high-conviction long GBPJPY on the back of the US Federal Reserve potentially moving over the next three meetings. That will lead to a weaker yen and the market is still long yen but not for long.

Concerns around Abe & Japan subsiding as people have thrown in the towel and the bulk of foreigners selling is done plus Brexit is seemingly a lot less of an issue than was the case a month ago.

We also like the charts and technicals, and we seem to be breaking out of this 160-163 congestion area, on top of which we’ve broken the neckline of an inverse & head & shoulders.

Management and risk description

A return of risk-off, a Brexit occurring & Fed backtracking on hikes/hawkishness, we also need to watch for a false breakout.


Entry: GBPJPY 163.00.

Stop: 160.00.

Target: 166.00, 169.50, 174.00.

Time horizon: 2-4 months.

GBPJPY could be set to climbr

Source: SaxoTraderGO

GBPJPY five-year chart


Source: SaxoTraderGO

You can watch a short video by Kay on his trade here

— Edited by Martin O'Rourke

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more

Alejo76 Alejo76
it seems is going in the opposite way..!
Morning Glory Morning Glory
It looks like it stopped at ~160 level just like Kay said and now is going up again :)
Kay Van-Petersen Kay Van-Petersen
Thx for the comments Alejo76 & Morning Glory. Timing was poor folks, walked straight into that new poll - regardless of its validity/robustness. Should probably have just expressed it through long calls instead (despite vol). Part of the game, lets see how things unfold over the rest of the day/week.


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