2017 was supposed to be the year of volatility. We entered the year with existential concerns in Europe, a startling new US presidency, and Chinese policy concerns as markets eyed October’s 19th Party Congress.
All in all, it seemed as if this would be the year we would see a more rambunctious monetary policy impulse, more dramatic gyrations, and a more turbulent climate in general.
Instead, the European elections went smoothly, the Trump administration proved unable to push policy, and Chinese leaders kept their economy running smoothly even as the country’s dangerous credit bubble inflated further.
All in all, it was a year of low volatility and high returns. Will 2018 offer more of the same? If this year's Outrageous Predictions offer anything, it is determined "no" from the Saxo strategy team on this point.
From a Federal Reserve brought under Washington's thumb to a Bank of Japan that loses total control of its yield curve policy, from a sudden dumping of US equities to a new market cap king, from USDCNY below 6.0 for the first time ever to Bitcoin at $60,000 (you read that right!), Saxo's strategy team most emphatically do not believe 2018 will be as quiet a year as was this one.
To get your copy of our team's Outrageous Predictions for 2018, click here.