Short term
Trade view / 29 June 2016 at 7:12 GMT

Rallies to find sellers in EURUSD

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom
Instrument: EURUSD
Price target:
Market price:

USD Index: The long-term bias remains bullish. However, with bearish divergence seen on short timeframes (thefour and six-hour charts), there is ample scope for a larger correction today. The prime long entry area is 95.50-95.35. This would also close the gap that has been left open at 95.67. We look to buy dips. 

The prime short entry for EURUSD is seen at 1.1220-25 and here is why:

Monthly: We are bears with parity (1.0000) our main focus. This is a Fibonacci confluence area and close to the base of the bearish channel. We have also posted a bearish Outside Bar in May.


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Source: Saxo Bank

Weekly: The major currency pair has been broadly confined to the weekly Ichimoku cloud for the last 16 weeks. This week’s selloff has stalled close the base. We are in a consolidating triangle formation that has an eventual bias to break lower. Trendline support is seen at 1.0580.

Source: Saxo Bank

Daily: Broken out of the expanding wedge to the downside but levels under the 127.2% extension of 1.0962 have found buyers. Reverse trendline resistance is now seen at 1.1143 (we will place stops above).

Source: Saxo Bank

Intraday one-hour: Consolidating after the strong impulsive move lower on Thursday night/Friday morning. The window from Friday's close to Sunday's open has now been closed (1.1083). 

Intraday trading should be mixed while we hold within this triangle pattern. We have the trend of lower highs coming in at 1.1122. Bespoke resistance is at 1.1120. This is our prime short entry area. The two hour Ichimoku Cloud should also offer some resistance

Source: Saxo Bank

Management and risk description

A move through 1.1035 and we place stop at entry.


Entry: selling at 1.1120-25.

Stop: 1.1165.

Target: 1.0780 and 1.0580.

Time horizon: today to trigger, estimate seven to 10 days for targets.

— Edited by Michael McKenna

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Michael S. McKenna Michael S. McKenna
Hello Ian, what do you make of this morning's chart movement in EURUSD? It seems as if there is a great amount of congestion, or a willingness to trade in the 1.106-1.108 range.
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Hi Michael. I agree. All the pair is doing at the moment is bouncing off intraday support and resistance levels. I think we could see a much deeper correction (to the upside) in stocks which should take the pressure off the USD(buying) for a while. I am just trading prime entry areas as I do not want to be caught too far off side. Ample scope for a bit of intervention too !!
Michael S. McKenna Michael S. McKenna
My feeling at the moment is that while a break of 1.103 could see a decline to 1.098 or so, this is essentially NOT the move this trade view is looking for, and a jump north of 1.11 may be needed to swing into the larger range discussed here... would you agree?
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
No. I think 1.1055 may base this currency pair for morning trade (with a DeMark 13 showing) and USD selling will attract safe haven buying again. I stick to my rules and system which tells me to sell rallies at 1.1120-25 area. Huge uncertainty in the market at the moment but intraday tic data is pretty low so I think most do not know what to do or have a view.
fxtime fxtime
Agree tick data a real direction as yet.
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
USDCHF looks like good support close to 0.9774-70 area this morning
Dj TinTin Dj TinTin
bang on the money
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
at the moment !!! lol
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
intraday target is 1.1060 ... if anyone wants to cover early
Vakas Vakas
Ian.. it seems euro will test its trend-line resistance which was previously support


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