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Playlist: Quarterly Outlook

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1:22
Quarterly Outlook: Gold bulls gathering strength
Ole Hansen
18 January 2018 at 15:19 GMT
1:30
Quarterly Outlook: Will cryptomania continue?
#SaxoStrats
18 January 2018 at 14:21 GMT
1:51
Quarterly Outlook: 'Q1 is a time to be cautious'
Simon Fasdal
18 January 2018 at 13:33 GMT
1:06
Quarterly Outlook: Housing bubbles everywhere
Dembik Christopher
18 January 2018 at 12:58 GMT
3:15
Quarterly Outlook: Currencies eye a bubbly 2018
John J Hardy
18 January 2018 at 12:16 GMT
2:52
Quarterly Outlook: The most important year since 2008
Peter Garnry
18 January 2018 at 11:25 GMT
1:11
Quarterly Outlook: Taking a technical approach to bubbles
#SaxoStrats
18 January 2018 at 10:02 GMT
2:30
Quarterly Outlook: 'It is time to talk about how bubbles form'
Steen Jakobsen
18 January 2018 at 8:56 GMT
3:18
Quarterly Outlook: China sets the stage
#SaxoStrats
03 October 2017 at 12:30 GMT
0:47
Quarterly Outlook: Enter the dragon – #SaxoStrats
Kay Van-Petersen
03 October 2017 at 11:45 GMT
3:59
Quarterly Outlook: For the future, look no further than China
Peter Garnry
03 October 2017 at 11:33 GMT
0:56
Quarterly Outlook: Credit impulse contraction bad news for growth
Dembik Christopher
03 October 2017 at 10:30 GMT
1:58
Quarterly Outlook: The geopolitical maelstrom – #SaxoStrats
Steen Jakobsen
03 October 2017 at 10:00 GMT
Video / 18 January 2018 at 10:02 GMT

Quarterly Outlook: Taking a technical approach to bubbles

#SaxoStrats
   • Amazon, Bitcoin charts show exponential versus super-exponential growth
   • 'In the presence of a bubble, the risk of a crash is significantly increased'
   • Bubbles cause traders, investors to detach expectations from fundamentals

SaxoStrats
By Anders Nysteen

Bubbles are often identified by the behaviours that surround them, such as the over-extension of hopes and the eventual sharp crash. According to Saxo Bank quantitative analyst Anders Nysteen, however, such readings downplay the very real mathematical structures that underpin asset price bubbles.

More than a simple metaphor, a bubble is a distinct mathematical form in which super-exponential growth causes a departure from fundamentals, and an eventual sharp correction. Of all concepts to keep front-of-mind into 2018, this may be one of the most crucial. 

Saxo Bank's strategy team is out with their take on world markets for the first quarter of 2018. Download your copy now.
18 January
JJb JJb
I guess I’m going to see the big short just one more time.

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