Playlist: Quarterly Outlook

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Quarterly Outlook: Gold bulls gathering strength
Ole Hansen
18 January 2018 at 15:19 GMT
Quarterly Outlook: Will cryptomania continue?
18 January 2018 at 14:21 GMT
Quarterly Outlook: 'Q1 is a time to be cautious'
Simon Fasdal
18 January 2018 at 13:33 GMT
Quarterly Outlook: Housing bubbles everywhere
Dembik Christopher
18 January 2018 at 12:58 GMT
Quarterly Outlook: Currencies eye a bubbly 2018
John J Hardy
18 January 2018 at 12:16 GMT
Quarterly Outlook: The most important year since 2008
Peter Garnry
18 January 2018 at 11:25 GMT
Quarterly Outlook: Taking a technical approach to bubbles
18 January 2018 at 10:02 GMT
Quarterly Outlook: 'It is time to talk about how bubbles form'
Steen Jakobsen
18 January 2018 at 8:56 GMT
Quarterly Outlook: China sets the stage
03 October 2017 at 12:30 GMT
Quarterly Outlook: Enter the dragon – #SaxoStrats
Kay Van-Petersen
03 October 2017 at 11:45 GMT
Quarterly Outlook: For the future, look no further than China
Peter Garnry
03 October 2017 at 11:33 GMT
Quarterly Outlook: Credit impulse contraction bad news for growth
Dembik Christopher
03 October 2017 at 10:30 GMT
Quarterly Outlook: The geopolitical maelstrom – #SaxoStrats
Steen Jakobsen
03 October 2017 at 10:00 GMT
Video / 03 October 2017 at 11:33 GMT

Quarterly Outlook: For the future, look no further than China

Peter Garnry
   • Opening of Chinese capital markets key for global investors
   • Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu 'should be part of anyone's portfolio'
   • Beijing aiming to lead AI and robotics-related industries by 2030

Peter Garnry
By Peter Garnry

The political crisis engulfing Brazil’s president continues to escalate, but without any significant impact on the currency. The local equity market has extended its rally as the macroeconomic outlook has improved further, with unemployment now firmly ticking down again. 

Valuation metrics have been pushed to levels competing with US equity markets, which in our view seems stretched given the political situation and potential slowdown in the short-term business cycle driven by China as credit growth slows. Seen in that light, we recommend that investors underweight Brazil going into Q4.

Energy sector not out of the woods

Looking across the sector landscape, energy was the third best performer in Q3, delivering almost 5% in local currency against a backdrop of rising oil prices. The rally was driven by a combination of factors ranging from the weaker USD and Hurricane Harvey hitting US oil supply, which caused sentiment towards oil prices to rise. 

However, current price levels are stretched against global supply-and-demand forces, and it’s our view that oil has limited upside from here, which we cover in full detail in our Q4 commodity outlook. As a result, we maintain our negative view on the energy sector.

Global equity sectors
Source: Saxo Bank

The world's next 1989 moment

While the world is fixated on a perceived upswing in terrorism and destabilisation on the Korean peninsula, China is moving forward to opening up its economy in a longer-term plan to overtake the US as the world’s leading superpower. 

The impact will be as significant to investors as the end of the Cold War in 1989, which was succeeded by a rapid increase in global trade volume as new markets were included in the World Trade Organization.

China’s latest moves in opening up its capital markets include the so-called Bond Connect that allows foreign fund managers to trade in China’s $9 trillion debt market without setting up an onshore account. The so-called Stock Connect is already integrating Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen, and likely paved the way for MSCI’s decision to add 222 China A large-cap stocks in its MSCI Emerging Market Index and increase China’s weight further from current levels at 29%. 

In addition, China was included in the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights basket, making the renminbi part of global reserve currencies. China has also opened up the fund industry by allowing foreign fund management firms to own 100% of local fund businesses, causing money managers, such as Man Group, Bridgewater Associates and Fidelity International, to start private funds in China. 

Moreover, Chinese regulators are moving forward to allow foreign insurance companies to provide health, pension and catastrophe insurance.

The People’s Bank of China is expected to propose regulation later this year to allow foreign institutions to control its local finance-sector joint ventures as well as raising the current 25% ceiling on foreign ownership in Chinese banks. The rationale is that if China does not open up its economy, it will be lazy and uncompetitive in the future.

Source: Saxo Bank

We highlighted in a recent research note that based on China’s 56% urbanisation rate, corresponding to where the US was in 1930, China has many decades of above-average growth ahead of it. As Chinese capital markets are opened, global investors will be able to participate in what will be the most transformational century as China and also India will regain their former glory in terms of global wealth share. 

China is already the largest economy on a purchasing power parity-adjusted basis. Any investor who is underweight China and India over the next 50 years will greatly underperform global equity indices. 

For investors in the developed world we recommend overweighting the technology sector as it remains the least regulated and overwhelmingly private sector. Buying broad-based indices through exchange-traded funds will still be a good approach for most, but the overweight of state-owned companies will be a drag on performance during the transition to a high-technology and consumer-driven economy.
China already leads in many fields

China’s State Council AI Development Plan, announced in July 2017, sets clear policy goals on artificial intelligence, aiming for China to be the global leader in all AI and robotics-related industries by 2030. The plan is a direct response to the rising wages that are lowering China’s competitiveness. National wages are up 200% since 2006, or 13% annualised, which is unsustainable in the long run. 

As a result, Chinese manufacturers are already heavily investing in robotics and automation technologies. Global data also suggest that robot density per 1,000 workers is positively associated with higher corporate profitability. 

Very few publicly-listed Chinese companies operate in the robotics industry. According to our research, only four exist, and they all trade on mainland China exchanges, making it difficult to get access. The biggest publicly-traded robotics firm is Estun Automation with a market value of $1.9 billion. 

If the stock is one of the A shares included in the EM index in 2018, global investors will get a slice of China’s robotics future. The leading Chinese technology companies that should be part of anyone’s portfolio are social media and gaming company Tencent (00700:xhkg), ecommerce giant Alibaba (BABA:xnys) and search engine group Baidu (BIDU:xnas). 

These three companies have had combined revenue of $64.8bn in the past 12 months, up 26.4% year-on-year. They all have leading positions in their respective industries and are all hugely profitable.

Peter Garnry
Within the consumer staples sector, investors can find tomorrow’s consumer winners in China. The largest beverages company Kweichow Moutai has a market value just below $100bn and is growing at 23% annually, which is a pace no beverages company in the developed world will ever come near. 

In the healthcare sector, one of the largest publicly listed companies is CSPC Pharmaceutical (01093:xhkg), with $1.7bn in revenue and growing at 14% annualised and with a market value around $10bn. It is one of China’s leading specialty pharma companies.

— Edited by Michael McKenna

Peter Garnry is head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank


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