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Commodities Update webinar — #SaxoStrats
Ole Hansen
Yesterday at 14:18 GMT
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Technical analysis – A view of the market: Larsson
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The week ahead in macro — #SaxoStrats
Kay Van-Petersen
14 May 2018 at 8:53 GMT
Video / 18 January 2018 at 12:16 GMT

Quarterly Outlook: Currencies eye a bubbly 2018

John J Hardy
   • Inflation uptick, US fiscal picture in focus
   • Low-volatility 2017 leaves FX set for major moves
   • Brexit, Trump remain key market drivers

SaxoStrats
By John J Hardy 

2018 should prove a dynamic year with many subplots. We are highly uncertain as to when our themes for the year will swoop down and move the markets, but many of them should be tested in Q1. 

Brief bouts of USD strength may arrive, but we see a weaker USD into year-end, particularly against the Japanese yen, but also versus the euro and sterling.

The only perceived path to a surge of strength in the greenback is if some sort of real liquidity crisis develops at some point – the perennial fat-tail risk. That risk may only materialise if we see the much-discussed global market melt-up risk unfolding first.

Saxo Bank's strategy team is out with their take on world markets for the first quarter of 2018. Download your copy now.

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