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Video / 26 March 2018 at 13:03 GMT

Positive rate differentials favour USD — #SaxoStrats

Kay Van-Petersen
Saxo's global macro strategist Kay Van-Petersen examines the big issues for the markets including AUDUSD, potential US-China trade war and interest rates.

You can learn more of Van-Petersen's in-depth views on the weekly Macro Monday webcast and his Trading Floor article.
27 March
Morris Morris
What is your strategic view on the immediate direction on the USD and its implication on Gold and Equity Indices in the US? Fully loaded I suppose!
27 March
aspen aspen
its not only the rate differentials, very imfportant are trade balance and current account balance, I believe that the US are looking to change these big deficits and like a weak dollar.
27 March
Kay Van-Petersen Kay Van-Petersen
Hey Morris, I think the mkt is long overdue a tactical squeeze higher in the USD, think the catalyst for this will be more positioning than any one thing (i.e. see Ole Hansen's latest wkly CoT Report & also covered in our Macro Monday call - we are the most short in the USD since Aug 2011... that quite extraordinary when you consider... we really did not start to take off with the USD until mid 2014).

Now thats tactical... and some crosses are probably better than other to express that (i.e. CHF) or just stick to a DXY expression.

Strategically hard to be a USD bull across the board...(including some of the points that Aspen has mentioned, as well as all the debt that it has... not to mention that the faster the Fed raises rates... the sooner we get towards the end of this business cycle) but there are crosses like AUD where I believe we are going to be seeing a serious cycle reversal in the medium-to-long term pattern of the cross.
27 March
Kay Van-Petersen Kay Van-Petersen
On Gold, very near-term I think these $1350 lvls are heavy... (I could easily see us pullback to the $1320-1330 lvls... especially as we are going through this equity bounce... however the charts look very constructive on a longer term horizon... & we saw how well the yellow shiny rock held up going into the FOMC hike...

Continue to think the Gold/Silver ration will mean revert over the next few months... positioning also favors that short gold / long silver bias...
27 March
Morten Olby Morten Olby
Thanks for sharing Kay. Refreshing format to present 3-4 trade ideas without too much background information.
27 March
Market Predator Market Predator
@Kay: I very much like your screen with interest differencial between USD&Aussie, it's strong signal for me!! You also mention business cycle and I'm very interested in this area! I mean: I believe that to understand current phase of cycle and more importantly to recognise shift into next phase (contraction -> recession etc..) is key for long term success on Markets. If you have some time space in your business time or if it is possible to discuss with your manager, please prepare webinar(s) dedicated to this field. It might be very interesting in conjunction with Products that Saxo offer. There is about 30 thousand instruments in Saxotrader and specially stocks (CFDs) in various sectors that are sensitive in various econ cycle might be exciting to study and as result: TO TRADE. I spend a lot of time at to try to understand cycles and definitely would appreciate brokerage view. Thanks in case you will consider. Keep goint with James Kim (King), Best regards, MP.
28 March
Morris Morris
Kay! Thanks. Charts attached seem to suggest we are closer to the top of the comparison. If the MVA is anything to go by the relation still favours Gold as lagging as MVA's can be! AS for the COT on the USD I have reservations and seems to be working in an inverse way "herding" ! Last if weakness in Gold is anticipated is it not more "likely" to be accompanied by stronger USD I just do not know!
29 March
Morten Olby Morten Olby
Status here before chasing Easter Eggs. AUDUSD made 0,84% and XAUUSD made 2% on the calls you made Monday. Very valuable,Kay! Thanks a lot and hope you will continue to provide these short term trading ideas!!
05 April
Kay Van-Petersen Kay Van-Petersen
Missed these folks... as always appreciate the time...

Morris, many thx for your comments. Likewise Morten, lets see how the high conviction short on AUDUSD plays out. My conviction on this grows wk by wk... I think we go from these 77-78c lvls to 70-73 by yearnd end, potentially already in 3Q. Its a contrarian view as consensus outlook is for Aussie to be 80c by year end. Will cover this in more detail including NOKSEK longs on nxt wk's MM.

MP, thx as always for the consistent feedback... will have a think on what you covered. Been working on getting a recession special for MM which will definitely cover cycles... depending on how that goes... maybe we can role it, into a webinar.


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