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Kay Van-Petersen
Saxo's global macro strategist Kay Van-Petersen looks at the French election and how he expects it to influence the markets. Van-Petersen expects that EURUSD will break 1.10 and that gold will drop and test its 200-day $1,255/oz moving average.
Day trade
Trade view / 15 June 2016 at 6:33 GMT

Playing USDCHF both ways today

Analyst / PIA First
United Kingdom
Instrument: USDCHF
Price target:
Market price:
Background

USD Index: expect a choppy start to the day. The USD index has broken the channel to the upside but we have stalled at the previous area of resistance (95.15) from April (2016). We could see a mild dip this morning. The prime long entry today would be reverse trend-line support and the Marabuzo from the June 3 line up at 94.90. 

USD Index breaks channel 
USD Index
Source: Saxo Bank 

USDCHF looks a good pair to play the USD move today. 

The monthly chart shows that as long as the May low of 0.9442 stays intact, then the bullish outside month gives the currency a positive bias.

Long-term USDCHF
USDCHF M
 Source: Saxo Bank
 
The daily chart highlights a wedge breakout but the rally was not sustained and we are now trading back within the wedge.

The interesting factor here is that the 161.8% extension is located at 1.0275 (from 0.9446-0.9958), close to the wedge target, consolidating close to the 61.8% Fibonacci pullback.

A break back above 0.9700 is needed to confirm the medium-term bias. 

The 161.8% extension at 1.0275
USDCHF D
Source: Saxo Bank

The intraday chart highlights a corrective channel with the pair rejecting the channel top at 0.9657 this morning. With a DeMark correction count and an engulfing inverted Bearish Hammer, I have taken a counter-trend short.

I am looking to play USDCHF both ways today. The Fibonacci 61.8% support level is seen at 0.9615 (profit set at 0.9620) and bespoke support at 0.9610. This is our area to start building longs once more. 

Looking at USDCHF both ways
USDCHF 1
 Source: Saxo Bank

Management and risk description

Parameters - Short entry (countertrend)

Entry: sold at 0.9651.

Stop: 0.9665.

Target: 0.9620.

Time horizon: this morning.

**********

Parameters - long entry

Entry: 0.9610.

Stop: 0.9580.

Target: 0.9700.

Time horizon: 2 sessions.


— Edited by Martin O'Rourke

Non-independent investment research disclaimer applies. Read more
1y
assi assi
Hi Ian, are you going to keep the long order through the FOMC rate ......?
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
morning assi. Yes, if we can get the stop at a respectable level
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Resistance in EURUSD is at 1.1243
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
09614 ... bit annoying. Have to cancel the trade idea going into FOMC. Short small EURUSD
1y
Anton Bushin Anton Bushin
Hi Ian, what do you think about USDCHF? will we get targets? by the way your idea was great with some time adjustments.
1y
Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading Ian Coleman - First 4 Trading
Yes still good... not annoyed, more frustrated. Went long 3 times yesterday !!! LOL

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