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Article / 16 December 2013 at 23:04 GMT

Outrageous Predictions: Soviet-style economy makes a comeback

Chief Economist & CIO / Saxo Bank
Denmark

By Steen Jakobsen

EU wealth tax heralds return of Soviet-style economy

In 2014, deflation and a lack of growth will create panic among policymakers, leading the EU Commission to table a working group that will focus on different wealth taxes for anyone with savings in excess of USD or EUR 100,000. The initiative will be in the name of removing inequality and will see the richest 1 percent pay a “fairer” share to ease society’s burden.

Several research papers have established that a wealth tax of 5 percent to 10 percent is needed to secure enough funds to create a “crisis buffer” to bail-in/out banks, governments and other liabilities created in this financial and debt crisis. It will be the final move towards a totalitarian European state and the low point for individual and property rights. We have gone full circle back to a Soviet Union model.

The obvious trade is to buy hard assets and sell inflated intangible assets. We would buy the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD:arcx), looking for it to go as high as 180, and sell an equal-weighted basket of Hermes International (HRMS:xpar), LVMH (MC:xpar) and Sotheby’s (BID:xnys), expecting the basket to go from index 100 to 50. 

Anti-EU alliance will become the largest group in parliament 

From May 22-25 next year, European Parliamentary elections will be conducted across Europe. Since the advent of the Lisbon Treaty in 2009, the European Parliament has not only become a powerful co-legislator, but must be taken into account when choosing a nominee for the post of president of the European Commission (EC), the executive arm of the European Union. European Parliamentary elections are contested by national political parties, but once MEPs are elected, most opt to become part of transnational political groups.

Following the May elections, a pan-European, anti-EU alliance, whose members will include the UK Independence Party, euro-currency sceptic Alternative for Germany, the National Front in France and Party for Freedom in the Netherlands, will become the largest group in parliament with a majority of more than 275 seats. Sweeping the traditional political groups out of Power, the new European Parliament chooses an anti-EU chairman and the European heads of state and government fail to pick a president of the EC, sending Europe back into political and economic turmoil. One trade would be to long German Bunds versus short Spanish Bonos — looking for a 300-basis-point spread again.
6y
Yura Yura
Excellent! Write more, so funny.
6y
Yura Yura
• Gold to trade USD 3000 per ounce
and
• Gold collapses 30 percent

Dollar collapse?
6y
Flavian Eigensatz Flavian Eigensatz
Gold above $2000/oz my view.
5y
Ne👐smach11 Ne👐smach11
Si vous êtes crédible l'augmentation de 1% sur $2000 ferait un bon marché tandis que si vous mettez une main d'œuvre sur l'échelon de 3% sur les $2000 votre marché avec le contrat biensur serait bon. 👌
5y
Ne👐smach11 Ne👐smach11
Le cas c'est si un effondrement en dollar viendra ceux qui disent cela c'est qu'ils sont pas attentif parce que l'entreprise n'a pas su bien travaillé alors là il y aura un effondrement en dollars .💸
5y
Ne👐smach11 Ne👐smach11
TRADUCTION: The case is whether the dollar will collapse those who say this is that they are not careful because the company did not know worked well then there shall be a dollar collapse. 💸
5y
Ne👐smach11 Ne👐smach11
TRADUCTION: If you are credible increase of 1% of $ 2,000 would be a good market, while if you put a labor on the level of 3% on your $ 2,000 to the contract market. J'ai que 13ans mais je suis surdoué donc faites le calcul je connais L'un de vous mais il me connaîtra
5y
Steen Thaulow Olsen Steen Thaulow Olsen
Spot on there, Steen. It has been coming for some time and it is getting worse now with Juncker.
5y
Ann Smith Ann Smith
The economical situation in the country is awful today. People are poor. They don’t have money for buying necessary thing. Government has to change something. We don’t have money for paying taxes. I know that some people take immediate processing of installment loans applications here: http://installmentcredits.com/ for paying taxes or simply for paying their debts. Unfortunately our government doesn’t pay attention for simple people who live in this country.

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