Article / 16 December 2011 at 9:57 GMT

Outrageous Prediction: Wheat prices to double in 2012

Ole Hansen Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy / Saxo Bank
Denmark

The price of CBOT wheat will double during 2012 after having been the worst performing crop in 2011. The drop was brought about due to a combination of farmers responding to high prices in 2010/11 and normalised weather in the Former Soviet Union. However with 7 billion people on the earth and money printing machines at full throttle bad weather across the world will unfortunately return and make it a tricky year for agricultural products. Wheat especially will rally strongly as speculative investors, who had built up one of the biggest short positions on record, will help drive the price back towards the record high last seen in 2008.

About Outrageous Predictions
In its Outrageous Predictions, Saxo Bank focuses on events that are unlikely to happen, but at the same time are far more likely than the market appreciates. The predictions are not meant as forecasts, but it is important for investors to consider events with under-recognised probabilities. Should any of them come to pass, they would have a significant impact on the markets.

  • Read all of Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2012 here.
  • Downlaod a PDF document containing the Outrageous Predictions here.
  • View a compilation of short videos about them here.

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