Outrageous Prediction: DAX plunges 33 percent to 5,000
The leading German stock market index DAX was one of the world’s best performing stock markets in 2012 as Europe’s economic juggernaut continued to fare better than most Eurozone countries, despite the crisis on the continent and weaker activity in China. This will all change in 2013 as China’s economic slowdown continues, thereby putting a halt to Germany’s industrial expansion. This causes large price declines in industrial stocks due to stagnating revenue and declining profits at major industry players such as Siemens, BASF and Daimler. This market stress deflates consumer confidence and as a result domestic demand, highlighted by weak retail sales. With domestic demand failing to offset weakening exports, approval ratings for Chancellor Angela Merkel plunge ahead of the German election in the third quarter, and ultimately the deteriorated economic situation obstructs her re-election attempt. With a weak economy and uncertainty about a new government, the DAX index declines to 5,000, down 33 percent for the year.